The Business Forecasting Revolution: Nation, Industry, Firm

The Business Forecasting Revolution: Nation, Industry, Firm

The Business Forecasting Revolution: Nation, Industry, Firm

The Business Forecasting Revolution: Nation, Industry, Firm

Synopsis

With the microcomputer revolution, econometric forecasting has begun to move from distant think tanks and data centers to the executive's desk. In The Business Forecasting Revolution, eminent economist F. Gerard Adams shows executives how they can use these sophisticated tools to improve theirbusiness planning, and how they can apply forecasting techniques to the economy as a whole, to the needs of specific industries, and to their own firm.

Excerpt

This book is about business forecasting using the tools of econometrics. No business forecaster can ignore the economic environment in which future business activity will take place. Inflation, interest rates, personal income, and the unemployment rate are among the economic forces that have a decisive impact on business performance.

Econometrics--the use of statistical and mathematical models to predict future economic activity--provides the tools for business forecasters to account for changes in the economy on their forecasts. This book seeks to bridge the gap between econometric forecasting as an academic discipline and the application of these techniques to the world of business. It explores the latest techniques by which business economists can get a handle on the economic environment, today and tomorrow.

We are in the middle of a revolution in forecasting. Models that run at long distance on giant mainframe computers are on the way out. the microcomputer has placed the task of forecasting squarely on the desk of business planners and managers. This fits well with the growing use of computer models in business for marketing studies, investment analysis, financial planning, inventory and production decisions, and the like. the microcomputer opens vast new horizons for business forecasting and this book looks at the range of choices that are open to forecasters.

The book is organized in a logical progression. It starts with . . .

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