The Investment Decision under Uncertainty

The Investment Decision under Uncertainty

The Investment Decision under Uncertainty

The Investment Decision under Uncertainty

Excerpt

As this thesis has been "in the mill" for nearly three years, in two different parts of the country, the number of persons with whom it has come into contact and from whom it has benefitted, is quite large -- too large to be adequately summarized in a reasonable preface. The debt which remains unstated, therefore, is a good deal greater than that which can be acknowledged.

My concern with the influence of uncertainty on rational investment policy began with participation in the "Harvard Program in Water Resources" during the spring of 1958. Full-time support by the program for the summer of that year provided the needed impetus to get the study underway. Frequent discussions with and criticisms by Professors Robert Dorfman, Otto Eckstein, Harold Thomas, Mr. Stephen Marglin, and other members of the Water Resources staff helped to keep it alive.

Financial support in the form of an IBM Research Fellowship to the Littauer Statistical Laboratory during 1959, and successive half-time research grants from the Social Sciences Research Institute, the University of Wisconsin, have made possible the study's completion. My debts to Professors John R. Meyer and Guy H. Orcutt, through whose efforts the preceding grants have been obtained, is greater than simple, financial calculations can show. They have made both research and survival possible -- a very considerable accomplishment.

Computations, and therefore, computational facilities, play a central role in this thesis. I am indebted to Albert E. Beaton, Director of the Littauer Statistical Laboratory, Harvard University, for allowing me such liberal use of that installation's programs and equipment. The bulk of the study's early computations are performed on the Littauer Laboratory's (former) IBM 650 Computer. My thanks must also go to the Directors and the Staffs of the Numerical Analysis Laboratory, the University of Wisconsin, for IBM 650 Computer facilities, and to the Midwestern Universities Research Association, Madison, Wisconsin, and the Harvard-MIT Computation Center, Cambridge, Massachusetts, for the use of IBM 704 Computers at crucial points in the computation process.

My thanks must also go to Professor J. B. Carroll for providing me with the Oblimin criterion of factor analysis, and to Professor H. S. Houthakker . . .

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