Population Estimation and Projection: Methods for Marketing, Demographic, and Planning Personnel

Population Estimation and Projection: Methods for Marketing, Demographic, and Planning Personnel

Population Estimation and Projection: Methods for Marketing, Demographic, and Planning Personnel

Population Estimation and Projection: Methods for Marketing, Demographic, and Planning Personnel

Synopsis

This is a versatile guide through the complex issues of population estimation and projection. Raymondo begins with the distinction between population estimates and projections, proceeds to take the reader through the issues of basic demographic measures, sources of data, levels of geographic analysis, and the selection and application of methods of estimation and projection. He then provides sound practical advice on evaluating and choosing a method of population estimation or projection. The methods are clearly outlined with a discussion of the merits and limitations of each method, and full examples with realistic data are provided for the key methodologies. The book concludes with a practical discussion on evaluating and choosing particular methods of estimation and projection.

Excerpt

It is fitting that the World Series is in progress as I write the preface to this book, since in a convoluted way the book has something of a relationship to baseball. More accurately, the book has a relationship to the classic comedy routine by Abbott and Costello, "Who's on First?" In 1987 I wrote an article on population growth in the United States that appeared in a leading demographic magazine. I had analyzed population trends between 1980 and 1986 at the county level and had given the manuscript an appropriately academic-sounding title which the editors of the magazine promptly changed to "Who's on First?" It did not really bother me too much, after all my work was going to be published, and I was getting paid in the bargain.

Some months later I received a letter from Thomas Gannon, an acquisitions editor for Quorum Books. It seemed he had run across the article and was writing to see if I would be interested in preparing a book on the subject. I answered his letter pointing out that the topic was not really the kind of material that would be appropriate for a book-length project but that I did have something in mind for a book on methods of population estimation and projection. I also pointed out that I did not have the time to work on such a project because I was trying to change jobs and wanted to get back into academia. A year later I was successful in obtaining an academic appointment and joined the faculty of Union College. After two hectic years I finally had some time to devote to writing, and I contacted Tom Gannon to see if Quorum were still interested in the idea I had for the book. Fortunately, they were, and I thank Tom Gannon for his help and . . .

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