The Prediction of Personal Adjustment: A Survey of Logical Problems and Research Techniques, with Illustrative Application to Problems of Vocational Selection, School Success, Marriage, and Crime

The Prediction of Personal Adjustment: A Survey of Logical Problems and Research Techniques, with Illustrative Application to Problems of Vocational Selection, School Success, Marriage, and Crime

The Prediction of Personal Adjustment: A Survey of Logical Problems and Research Techniques, with Illustrative Application to Problems of Vocational Selection, School Success, Marriage, and Crime

The Prediction of Personal Adjustment: A Survey of Logical Problems and Research Techniques, with Illustrative Application to Problems of Vocational Selection, School Success, Marriage, and Crime

Excerpt

This monograph represents a survey of the logical problems involved in the prediction of human adjustment, with a critical consideration of basic research techniques, new and old, and with illustrative applications to the problems of vocational selection, school success, marriage, and crime.

Three considerations converged to make this task seem especially timely. First, a considerable stream of new quantitative theory, as illustrated by factor analysis in psychology, has recently opened new vistas of possibilities for the improvement of instruments of measurement and the discovery of factors important in the prediction of human adjustment. Some of this new mathematical work, seemingly remote from problems of prediction, turns out to have implications which will freshen the whole approach to the prediction problem. Second, new inventions in mechanical tabulation now make possible economical statistical operations which would have been prohibitively costly a decade ago. The influence on psychology and the social sciences of new devices in mechanical tabulation parallels the influence of new mathematical techniques. Third, recent efforts to make more explicit the operations which actually go on in "intuitively sizing up people" in informal interviews and, in general, in the case study methods of research have demonstrated the urgent need of linking more closely quantitative and nonquantitative methods for improving the value and accuracy of predictions.

A timely aspect of this study grows out of the need of the national defense program for a rigorous reexamination of funda-

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