Forecasting Business Cycles

Forecasting Business Cycles

Forecasting Business Cycles

Forecasting Business Cycles

Excerpt

The following chapters give an exposition of what I believe to be an adequate, basis for forecasting business cycles. They present the data necessary for formulating an elastic realistic concept of probable future developments in business and reveal the processes of reasoning by which that concept is obtained.

The exposition begins, in Chapters I to V of Part I, with an analysis of the business situation in October-December 1930 and the forecasts, made at the time, of the then-probable future course of business. These chapters were written between November 1 and December 3, 1930 and appeared as articles in Barron National Financial Weekly on November 10th, 24th, December 8th, 22nd, and in the New York Evening Post's Annual Survey of Business and Finance of January 2, 1931.

These articles, unedited and unchanged except for correction of typographical errors, appear in this book as Chapters I to V. They are statements of inductions and deductions made at the time from data then available. The concepts of "probable future developments in business" there described are "future" as of the dates of writing. They contain no element of "hindsight."

The forecasts given in these chapters may prove to be mistaken--but there they are intact, and they are offered as an illustration of actual practice in forecasting business cycles. They should be judged, not as predictions that business will certainly pursue the course described, but as forecasts of probable developments in business. They are based upon an analysis of the then-available data and an appraisal . . .

Author Advanced search

Oops!

An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.