China in the 21st Century: Long-Term Global Implications

China in the 21st Century: Long-Term Global Implications

China in the 21st Century: Long-Term Global Implications

China in the 21st Century: Long-Term Global Implications

Excerpt

China is emerging as a major player in the world economic arena. It accounts for one-fifth of the earth's population, and a significant share of global output. With trade and production expanding at double-digit rates, the implications for many international markets as well as for the global system of trade and investment in the next century are quite daunting. So, too, are the policy challenges facing both China and the international community, for there is much to be gained from a smooth, successful integration of this huge country into the world economy.

With these prospects in mind, the OECD organised a Forum for the Future conference early in 1996. The aim was to provide an opportunity for key players in government, business, industry and research, from OECD and non-OECD countries, to assess some of the key economic and social challenges facing China over the next 15-20 years and to consider the implications and most appropriate options both for China and the international community.

The conference consisted of four sessions. The first provided a general overview of the structural and other economic and social challenges facing China, using scenarios to explore what the key issues may be in the development of the Chinese economy. The second session focused more directly on Chinese industry, in particular its likely longterm evolution in terms of labour-intensive manufacturing and high-tech production. The third examined the prospects for agriculture and energy in China, highlighting the importance of structural factors, potential supply and demand imbalances, and the possible implications for the international economy. The final session explored economic issues of a more systemic nature associated with China's emergence, and sought to identify areas of policy action that hold mutual interest for both China and the international community.

This publication brings together the papers presented at the meeting as well as an introductory contribution by the Secretariat. The book is made available on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.

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