The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming

The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming

The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming

The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming

Synopsis

Even as the evidence of global warming mounts, the international response to this serious threat is coming unraveled. The United States has formally withdrawn from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol; other key nations are facing difficulty in meeting their Kyoto commitments; and developing countries face no limit on their emissions of the gases that cause global warming. In this clear and cogent book-reissued in paperback with an afterword that comments on recent events--David Victor explains why the Kyoto Protocol was never likely to become an effective legal instrument. He explores how its collapse offers opportunities to establish a more realistic alternative.Global warming continues to dominate environmental news as legislatures worldwide grapple with the process of ratification of the December 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The collapse of the November 2000 conference at the Hague showed clearly how difficult it will be to bring the Kyoto treaty into force. Yet most politicians, policymakers, and analysts hailed it as a vital first step in slowing greenhouse warming. David Victor was not among them.Kyoto's fatal flaw, Victor argues, is that it can work only if emissions trading works. The Protocol requires industrialized nations to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to specific targets. Crucially, the Protocol also provides for so-called "emissions trading," whereby nations could offset the need for rapid cuts in their own emissions by buying emissions credits from other countries. But starting this trading system would require creating emission permits worth two trillion dollars--the largest single invention of assets by voluntary international treaty in world history. Even if it were politically possible to distribute such astronomical sums, the Protocol does not provide for adequate monitoring and enforcement of these new property rights. Nor does it offer an achievable plan for allocating new permits, which would be essential if the system were expanded to include developing countries.The collapse of the Kyoto Protocol--which Victor views as inevitable--will provide the political space to rethink strategy. Better alternatives would focus on policies that control emissions, such as emission taxes. Though economically sensible, however, a pure tax approach is impossible to monitor in practice. Thus, the author proposes a hybrid in which governments set targets for both emission quantities and tax levels. This offers the important advantages of both emission trading and taxes without the debilitating drawbacks of each.Individuals at all levels of environmental science, economics, public policy, and politics-from students to professionals--and anyone else hoping to participate in the debate over how to slow global warming will want to read this book.

Excerpt

The litany of global warming hazards is now familiar. Changing temperatures and rainfall may harm agriculture and stress natural ecosystems. Rising sea levels and severe storms may erode and inundate coastal zones. Especially worrisome is mounting evidence that nasty surprises, such as an abrupt shift in climate, become more likely as carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” accumulate in the atmosphere. (The appendix to this book gives a brief survey of the science.) Although uncertainties are still pervasive, the dangers of greenhouse gases are not being ignored. Global warming is hardly the only environmental hazard, but in many countries it is rising high as a policy priority.

With a growing consensus for action, the world now faces the challenge of designing an effective policy response. International cooperation will be required because greenhouse gases are longlived in the atmosphere—emissions from every country spread worldwide to create a truly global problem. Cooperation is also required because controlling emissions may be costly. Most of . . .

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