Academic journal article Journal of Accountancy

Economic Outlook Cloudy

Academic journal article Journal of Accountancy

Economic Outlook Cloudy

Article excerpt

Economic prognosticators speaking at the Conference Board's annual business outlook conference saw little to be optimistic about, at least in the immediate future.

Gail Fosler, chief aconomist at the Conference Board, expects economic growth to be in the range of 2% next year and the inflation rate to be about 3 1/2%.

In the months ahead, she foresees a relatively stagnant economy. "I'm looking for the economy to pick up in the second half of next year, mainly motivated by the housing sector, but that's based on getting mortage rates down to a level that brings people back to the housing market," she said.

Sluggish growth of about 2% was also predicted by Albert Wojnilower, senior adviser for First Boston Asset Management Corp. He expects interest rates to rise slightly next year.

Robert Reischauer, executive director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), said fiscal year 1991 brought the largest deficit in American history, despite last year's budget agreement between Congress and President Bush. He called the deficit picture "significantly bleaker now than it appeared six or nine months ago" and said estimates recently released by the CBO show the situation will continue to deteriorate over the last half of the decade.

Budget warnings also were expressed by Felix Rohatyn, senior partner of the investment firm of Lazard Freres & Co. and chairman of the Municipal Assistance Corporation for the City of New York. …

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