Academic journal article ABA Banking Journal

The Out-of-Date G8

Academic journal article ABA Banking Journal

The Out-of-Date G8

Article excerpt

Amongst Herman Kahn's many insights was a basic technique that remains an essential part of my analytical toolbox. It offers a valuable lesson on viewing the future environment.

Most decision-makers suffer from the 'tyranny of received wisdom'--their opinions are shaped by generally-accepted beliefs that are either many years out of date or just plain wrong. It boils down to a simple rule of thumb: if everyone says something is true, go and take a second Look. Closer scrutiny of the relevant statistics and factual evidence invariably demands revision of the current state of political, economic, or social relationships.

Consider the big players in the 21st century world economy. The G7 was the exclusive club of the 'seven biggest and richest' industrialised nations. When the Soviet Union collapsed, G7 members offered Russia a seat alongside them since perceived economic size made her an obvious candidate for top table status. But Let's have another took at the real facts about the enlarged G8--and the probable evolution of global power players over the next 20 years.

The latest figures from the International Money Fund, adjusted for prices, put the Russian economy tenth in the world. World Bank studies put her 16th, smatter than Brazil the Netherlands, Australia and South Korea. Meanwhile, two nations out of the top four economies on the planet don't even enjoy G8 membership. IMF statistics have China and India now standing second and fourth respectively in terms of GDP, mingling with the U. …

Search by... Author
Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

Oops!

An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.