Academic journal article Atlantic Economic Journal

Intercounty Net Migration in Ohio, 1980-90

Academic journal article Atlantic Economic Journal

Intercounty Net Migration in Ohio, 1980-90

Article excerpt

An issue in migration literature centers around the effects of fiscal variables on migration decisions. Tiebout |JPE, 1956, pp. 416-24~ developed a formal model of human mobility in accordance with the movers' preferences for varying packages of public goods and services that communities would offer. Tullock |JPE, 1971, pp. 913-18~ introduced the notion of local tax differentials explicitly as an important determinant of human location decisions.

This note presents empirical evidence that local property tax differentials, as well as economic opportunity variables, are a significant determinant of human mobility decisions. Ordinary least squares regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between net migration rate (Mig) of 88 Ohio counties and a set of regressors. The regressors consisted of these variables: unemployment rate (U) in 1980, employment growth (E) during 1980-89, natural labor force increase in the absence of migration (L) during 1980-89, per capita income (Y) in 1985, and per capita property tax (T) in 1982. The regression results are:

Mig = 0.43 - 0.75U + 0.0002E - 0.0001L + 0.0014Y - 0.02T (3.39) (2.97) (3.65) (2.05) (2.70) |R.sup.2~ = 0.37,

where terms in parentheses are t-values.

The empirical results presented here show that all included regressors are significant at the 1 percent level except per capita income, which is significant at the 5 percent level. …

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