Academic journal article National Institute Economic Review

The World Economy

Academic journal article National Institute Economic Review

The World Economy

Article excerpt

* The global growth rate is expected to exceed 5 per cent this year with growth continuing at above 4 1/2 per cent per annum into 2008.

* Over the second half of this decade France, Germany and Japan are expected to perform better than the United States.

* Adjustment in the United States housing market is unlikely to lead to a recession there.

* Investment rates in China are very high. A sharp reduction in Chinese investment would have a clear impact on growth in the developed countries.

* Inflation is expected to rise slightly in the Euro Area and Japan but to decline in the United States.

Growth in the Euro Area is expected to reach 2 1/2 per cent this year and then fall back to 2 per cent next year and in 2008. Japanese growth is expected to be 2.7 per cent this year, falling slightly to 2.6 per cent next year and 2.3 per cent in 2008. While in overall terms the United States is expected to grow slightly faster, at 3.3 per cent this year, 2.6 per cent next year and 2.4 per cent in 2008, growth in both GDP per capita and GDP per person of working age in France, Germany and Japan is expected to exceed that in the United States over the period 2006-10. This contrasts with the marked US lead in the first half of this decade. Italy's performance is expected to be weaker, but nevertheless the Italian economy is likely to perform better than it did 2001-5. …

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