Academic journal article International Advances in Economic Research

The War in Iraq and the 2006 U.S. Elections

Academic journal article International Advances in Economic Research

The War in Iraq and the 2006 U.S. Elections

Article excerpt

JEL D70.D72

In November 2006, voters gave Democrats back control of the new Congress, with a 233-202 margin in the House of Representatives and a slim 51-49 edge in the Senate. While most people vote pocketbook issues, the traditional wisdom is that Democrats in 2006 toppled Republican majorities in the House and the Senate largely because of voter discontent over the war in Iraq.

Casualty rates per 100,000 population were calculated for each state; members of the U.S. military who have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003 through November 6, 2006, (the day before election day) are from http://icasualties. org/oif/ByState.aspx. Population estimates by state in 2006 are from http://www. census.gov/popest/states/tables/NST-EST2006-01.xls. A two-sample /-test was run on the difference between the average casualty rate in two groups of states: (1) 19 blue states (that were won by John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate in November 2004) and 31 red states (that were won by President George W. Bush, the Republican incumbent); (2) the six states where Democrats picked up a Senate seat in 2006 versus all other 27 states with a Senate race; and (3) the 18 states where Democrats picked up one or more House seats in 2006 versus all other states. …

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