Academic journal article Federal Reserve Bulletin

Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Academic journal article Federal Reserve Bulletin

Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Article excerpt

Report submitted to the Congress on February 26, 1997, pursuant to the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978

MONETARY POLICY AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The economy performed impressively this past year, and the members of the Board of Governors and the Reserve Bank presidents anticipate that 1997 will bring further appreciable economic expansion with relatively low inflation. In 1996, solid advances in the real expenditures of households and businesses led to sizable gains in output. Employment rose briskly, and the unemployment rate edged down to its lowest level of the current expansion. Consumer price inflation increased owing to the likely temporary effects of firmness in food and energy markets, but some broader price measures showed inflation holding steady or even declining. With the economy strengthening, intermediate- and long-term interest rates rose on net, but credit continued to be amply available to businesses and most households, and equity prices soared.

Several factors helped to restrain price increases this past year in the face of high levels of resource utilization. With workers still concerned to some degree about job security, acceleration in hourly compensation was not so pronounced as in comparable periods in the past; wage increases picked up relatively moderately, and further success in controlling health care costs helped to temper the rise in benefits. Moreover, significant declines in the prices of U.S. imports, owing to low inflation abroad and appreciation of the dollar on foreign exchange markets, tended to hold down domestic prices. Damped inflation expectations probably contributed as well to the favorable price performance: A lengthening run of years during which inflation has been in a more moderate range, together with an understanding of the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining progress toward price stability, may have discouraged aggressive pricing behavior. Business firms continued to rely on cost control and gains in productivity, rather than on price increases, as the primary channels for achieving profit growth.

Still, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recognized the danger that pressures emanating from the tight labor market might trigger an acceleration of prices, which could eventually undermine the ongoing economic expansion. Consequently, although conditions last year were not deemed to warrant immediate policy action, the Committee's policy directives starting in mid-1996 reflected a perception that the most likely direction of any policy action would be toward greater restraint in the provision of reserves to the banking system. Forestalling a disruptive buildup of inflationary pressures in the near term and moving toward price stability over time remain central to the System's mission of promoting maximum sustainable growth of employment and production.

Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, and the Economy in 1996

The FOMC eased the stance of monetary policy twice around the beginning of last year--in December 1995 and in January--lowering the federal funds rate 1/2 percentage point in total, to 5 1/4 percent. These actions were taken to offset the effect on the level of the real federal funds rate of declines in inflation and inflation expectations in the second half of 1995 and thereby to help ensure the resumption of moderate economic growth after the marked slowdown and inventory correction in late 1995. By the spring, economic growth had become more vigorous than either the Committee or financial markets had foreseen. In response, intermediate-and longer-term interest rates as of mid-May were up around a full percentage point from the two-year lows reached early in the year. In combination with some softening of economic activity abroad and declines in interest rates in major foreign industrial countries, these developments contributed to a further appreciation of the dollar, building on the rise that had started in mid-1995. …

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