Evaluation of Post-Kyoto Frameworks Focusing on Sector-Based Approaches and National Numerical Targets

Article excerpt

1. Introduction

Since the fourth assessment report of IPCC was published in 2007, worldwide concern on global warming has been escalating unprecedentedly. Response strategies to climate change were raised as the most important issue also in the Heiligendamm summit in June, 2007. Since the first commitment period started this year, they are making the sincere effort to comply with the numerical target in Annex-one countries ratifying Kyoto Protocol.

On the other hand, international negotiation has also started from COP13 in 2007 on the framework to mitigate climate change after 2013, what we call post-Kyoto framework. Japanese government advocated sector-based approaches as post-Kyoto candidates. Taking these situations into consideration, this paper aims at analyzing the post-Kyoto framework, centered on sector-based approaches.

2. Examination of post-Kyoto frameworks

As long as Kyoto Protocol is concerned, United States of America already resigned from the protocol. Developing countries do not have national numerical targets in the protocol, even if they are ratifying it. Furthermore, Kyoto mechanisms are presently not functioning ideally due to complicated certification procedures of CDM. Therefore involvement of developing countries through Kyoto mechanisms is not very efficient for the moment. It is significant to establish a post-Kyoto framework enabling meaningful participation of the United States and developing countries.

Various proposals are already made on the post-Kyoto frameworks including sector-based approaches. In general, sector-based approaches set targets on energy efficiency or greenhouse gas emission intensity on individual sectors including industry, residence or transportation, in which they improve to realize the targets (Schmidt et al., 2006).

In Davos meeting in January, 2008, Japanese Prime Minister, Mr. Fukuda advocated a sector-based bottom up approach, in which each nation is able to evaluate rational numerical target by summing up greenhouse gas emission in each sector. The greenhouse gas emission in each sector is determined by setting a target on its greenhouse gas emission intensity. On the other hand, Japanese government also advocated another type of a framework, cooperative sector-based approach. This approach adopts some key sectors, in which they improve greenhouse gas emission intensities worldwide by transferring efficient technologies. In this sense, the cooperative sector-based approach is closely related with mechanisms for technology transfer such as CDM. Thus sector-based approaches have wide institutional variations. The above classification depends on whether a sector-based approach is for national or international framework. We have also to take account of the classification based on whether it is for all sectors or part of sectors, and whether it is with or without technology transfer.

Taking these factors into consideration, we propose the following classification for sector-based approaches including national numerical targets as in Kyoto Protocol.

(1) Complete sector-based approach

In this institution, all domestic GHG emissions are classified into individual sectors. For instance, they are divided into GHG emission in iron and steel, cement, pulp and paper, etc. in industry. In the same way, GHG emissions are classified into each sector also in residence, transportation and energy conversion. This approach sets targets on energy efficiency or greenhouse gas emission intensity on individual sectors, which they improve to realize.

(2) Complete sector-based approach with a mechanism for technology transfer This institution is the same as the above mentioned complete sector-based approach except for the following point. Namely, this institution recognizes technology transfers without the present complicated certification as CDM by setting simple benchmarks for GHG intensities. …