Academic journal article Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management

Determination of Spatial Extent of Land Use in the Fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan: A Semivariogram Analysis

Academic journal article Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management

Determination of Spatial Extent of Land Use in the Fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan: A Semivariogram Analysis

Article excerpt

1. INTRODUCTION

The fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan (BoDeTaBek: Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi) has experienced sprawl. It is a low density, non contiguous and land intensive development activities. They have scattered across the regions and consumed large areas of prime agricultural land. As a result, the predominantly agricultural activities in the fringe area were transformed into industrial and service based activities (Firman 1997). This type of development is regarded as an inefficient development process, emerging from market forces subject to various market failures (Brueckner 2000; Ewing 2008). Key market failures in this context include the failure to take into account the social value of open space, the failure of an individual commuter to take into account the social costs of congestion, and the failure of the real estate developers to take account of all the public infrastructure costs (Brueckner 2000).

Among some of the negative effects of sprawl, the increased development value of open space (e.g. forest, agriculture land) adjacent to developed land will be the main attention of this study. This situation speeds up the conversion of productive agricultural land, forest or conservation areas in the southern fringe (Bogor and Puncak) (Firman 1997). It endangers the sustainability of agricultural and forestry activities. Moreover, the conversion of the conservation areas has been blamed as the main cause of the severe yearly flood in the area and other environment problems. The existing spatial plan fails to manage the situation properly (Firman 2004).

The traditional monocentric city model (Alonso 1964), in which distance from CBD is the main determinant of land value, does not explain sprawl very well. More recent models (Fujita 1988; Anas 1992; Anas and Kim 1996; Irwin and Bockstael 2002; Caruso, Peeters et al. 2007) provide improved explanations of sprawl through the interaction of spatially distributed agents, emphasising competing externalities. They argue that sprawl (the low density and fragmented residential development, and the emergence of mixed housing farming arrangement in suburban areas) is the result of households' significant appreciation of both neighbourhood open space ('green' externality) and social interaction ('social' externality). The relative importance the households attach to each type of externality determines the spatial pattern of urban development (fragmented - sprawl or compact). The leapfrog development pattern or sprawl occurs when the preference for the 'green' externality is similar to the preference for the 'social' externality.

In response to those interaction models, Fitriani and Harris (Fitriani and Harris 2011) adapted a model of competing externalities, Residential Choice of Location with Externalities, by looking at the direct interaction of 'green' and 'social' externalities rather than looking at them independently, as simultaneous determinants of residential location choice. In particular they analyze the implication of leapfrog development pattern-sprawl-on the predicted city size, and the consequences for development of new land. The analysis indicates that a city with significant household preferences for both types of externalities will be relatively larger than a city with no significant externalities. Their model is tested empirically using three years (1995, 2000 and 2006) of grid-based land use data (i.e. covering two changes in land use) of the fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan area. The empirical study suggests that both types of neigbourhood development externalities determine the observed land use change. The model predicts that in this area, the new development will most likely take place in the proximity of other developed land, which still has enough surrounding open space. It implies that during the observed study, the offsetting externalities have contributed to the non-compact urban development activities, expanding the urban areas such that it might potentially reach the environmentally sensitive land in the southern fringe of the city. …

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