Academic journal article AEI Paper & Studies

Voters in the Early GOP Caucuses and Primaries

Academic journal article AEI Paper & Studies

Voters in the Early GOP Caucuses and Primaries

Article excerpt

The first four Republican caucus and primary electorates differ in some important respects, as these profiles show. Fifty-six percent in the 2012 Iowa GOP caucus entrance poll were white evangelicals, compared to 21 percent in the New Hampshire primary exit poll. Forty-seven percent in Iowa were very conservative; 47 percent in New Hampshire were moderate or liberal. The results below are similar to the 2008 results. In 2008, Barack Obama expanded the Iowa Democratic caucus vote substantially. Fifty-seven percent told entrance poll interviewers they were first-time caucus-goers. Could Republicans do this? We will know soon.

                            2012 Republican Caucuses and Primaries
                             Iowa                 New Hampshire
                            (entrance poll)       (exit poll)

Men                            57%                   54%
Women                          43                    46
White                          99%                   99%
Non-white                       1                     1
Under 30 years                 15%                   12%
30-44                          16                    19
45-64                          42                    48
65 and older                   26                    21
Never attended college         17%                   13%
Some college                   31                    32
College graduates              52                    55
By income
Under $50,000                  33%                   26%
$50,000-$100,000               39                    37
$100,000 or more               28                    37
White
Evangelical/Born
again                          56%                   21%
Very conservative              47%                   21%
Somewhat conservative          37                    32
Moderate or liberal            17                    47
Support Tea Party              64%                   51%
Neutral                        24                    30
Oppose                         10                    17

                             2012 Republican Caucuses and Primaries
                             South Carolina           Nevada
                             (exit poll)             (entrance poll)

Men                             51%                     53%
Women                           49                      47
White                           98%                     90%
Non-white                        2                      10
Under 30 years                   9%                      8%
30-44                           19                      15
45-64                           45                      43
65 and older                    27                      35
Never attended college          18%                     13%
Some college                    36                      39
College graduates               47                      48
By income
Under $50,000                   36%                     28%
$50,000-$100,000                37                      44
$100,000 or more                27                      28
White
Evangelical/Born
again                           64%                     24%
Very conservative               36%                     49%
Somewhat conservative           32                      34
Moderate or liberal             32                      17
Support Tea Party               64%                     75%
Neutral                         27                      19
Oppose                           8                       5

Note: In Iowa and Nevada, voters may participate in the caucuses if
they will be 18 years old by the general election date. Only voters
registered with a party may participate in that party's caucus. In New
Hampshire, undeclared voters and voters registered with a party may
vote in that party's primary. In South Carolina, voters may vote in
either party's primary.
Source: National Election Pool, a consortium of five news networks and
the Associated Press, 2012. … 
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