Academic journal article Academy of Marketing Studies Journal

Predictive Modeling of Migration Flows between Russia and the CIS Countries

Academic journal article Academy of Marketing Studies Journal

Predictive Modeling of Migration Flows between Russia and the CIS Countries

Article excerpt

INTRODUCTION

For several decades, the post-Soviet development of the newly independent states was involved in intense migration processes. The collapse of the Soviet Union into separate independent states instantly transformed the old domestic, migration between republics flows that existed in the USSR, in the international (Demko, Ioffe, Zayonchkovskaya, 1999; Chereshnev, Vasilyeva, 2013; Tarasyev, 2014; Hoang, 2015).

Since the collapse accompanied by acute political and economic crisis in the post-Soviet space, it has caused an "explosion" of international migration, for the most part forced, panic, ethnically-motivated. Following the collapse of the USSR, even after seven years passed since dramatic events that lead to disintegration of the region the consequences of migration did not come to the end (Bagautdinova, Hadiullina, Sarkin, Pratchenko, 2014; Bigo, 2002).

Following the adoption of new forms of migration in the post-Soviet space has become an important feature of economic and social legal status and violations of their legal and social rights. At the same time the probability of migration--permanent or employment--allowed many former Soviet citizens to survive in conditions of prolonged economic crisis that accompanied the transition to a market economy (Panasyuk, Pudovik, Sabirova, 2014). Multilateral cooperation in the area of migration within the CIS was aimed not only on good governance has permanent and temporary migration and ensuring the rights of migrants, as well as the fight against illegal migration.

TERMS AND METHODS OF RESEARCH

To solve the problem of studying the processes of the migration exchange between Russia and the CIS countries and identify the factors contributing to the migration attractiveness of regions the authors elaborated approach for making a forecast of the volume of migration flows, the grouping of Russian regions by the "balance of migration" indicator. It combines forecast and subsequent analysis of the ethnic structure of migrants in the identified centers of gravity and the factors identification determining region selection by migrants.

To solve the problem of migration forecasting in the Russian Federation with the CIS, ARIMA autoregressive forecasting was used with parameters (p = 1, q = 0).

The calculations were performed on the basis of Federal service of state statistics data in period from 1997 to 2014 (FSSS, 2014; CSS, 2014; FMS, 2015).

RESULTS

On the basis of the above mentioned approach short-term forecast of the migration flow volume of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries was elaborated. When forecasting, we used the Federal service of state statistics data on arriving migrants from the CIS countries in Russia in the period from 1997 to 2014. The lowest influx of migrants was 105488 people in 2004, and the biggest influx during this period was 547386 people in 1997. The predicted values of migration are shown in table 1 and graphically shown in figure 1.

The forecast results show that the Russian Federation would face a decline in migration influx of population from the CIS countries. By 2018 the number of arriving migrants in the average forecast would be about 280000 people, which are 144000 less than in 2013. This forecast suggests that the number of arriving migrants in subsequent years will stabilize.

In the high variant of the forecast the number of arrivals from the CIS countries would increase in 2015 from 660000 to 800000 persons.

In the low forecast variant the reduction in numbers of arriving migrants reflects the continued economic distress in the country. It is clear that migration exchange with the CIS countries can't stop, but to predict the level at which it would stabilize is pretty hard. Such predictive trend shows almost zero volume of arriving migrants from the CIS countries in 2018.

The forecast results show that the decrease in immigration could change the demographic and economic situation of the country. …

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