Academic journal article European Research Studies

Systemic Crisis of the World Economy or the End of the "Bourgeois Mode of Production"

Academic journal article European Research Studies

Systemic Crisis of the World Economy or the End of the "Bourgeois Mode of Production"

Article excerpt

1. Introduction

Since 2008, we have heard of many apocalyptic forecasts concerning the development of the world economy. It is interesting that despite the seeming evidence of the reasons; only some economists could make out a crisis in advance. But what is symptomatic: in an economic mainstream there is still no theory which would systemically explain the crisis reasons. As a rule, most of the economists distinguish the problems concerning the market of derivatives and the problems connected with the market of mortgage. However, a more detailed analysis is likely to show that reasons causing these problems result from the reasons of a deeper system level. And if a crisis was over, it would be possible not to focus on it. It would be possible to do it if the crisis was cyclic.

Unfortunately, the crisis which began in August, 2008 has a system character. And it is impossible to find a way out without analysis and elimination of serious problems. Lack of any system analysis of such problems is quite explainable. The matter is that the modern economic science is based on liberalism philosophy, and in its purely economic part--on monetarism. All other scientific approaches are perceived as frivolous. And meanwhile, the causes of the current crisis are described by K. Marx. Aiming at profit forces, the capitalist (or as he/she is called "a bourgeois way of production") constantly increases the outputs and occupies the markets. However, the moment when limits of expansion of the markets are reached comes, it will be useless to provide more because there will be no demand. Of course, K. Marx made that statement only theoretically (the economy of the 19th century was far from being global). However, for the 21st century it became a reality. Limits of solvent demand are reached (or are almost reached), and the capitalist model cannot steadily develop in a different way (it needs a constant growth).

Actually, in the USA and other leading countries of the West limits of demand were reached in the 1970-1980s. However, Reaganomics, credit stimulation of demand and disintegration of the countries of the socialist block prolonged the life of "a bourgeois way of production" [2].

However, by the beginning of the 21st century the market became uniform, global, and interest rates of central banks of the majority of developed countries had a zero value (Table 1) and the mechanism of credit stimulation of demand was also exhausted.

All this suggests an idea again that the crisis of 2008 has a systemic character, which roots in the model of managing ("a way of production").

2. Methods

In the research statistical methods, and also the methods of extrapolation and interpolation and others were widely used. The modern world economy is presented by 190 countries (according to MFV). However, their contribution is quite various. For example, ten countries give more than 61% of world GDP (if we take into account the purchasing power, PPS) (Table 2 and Figure 2).

In this regard it is logical to think that in the future the development of these countries will influence the world economy. We should also add that all the countries mentioned above have different cultural, historical, religious features, and they are located on different continents, which allow making a certain conclusion connected with the world economy on the whole. To analyze the tendencies of the world economy, we studied the dynamics of macro indicators of these countries within 1995-2015, including:

* macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product (taking into account the purchasing power and nominal estimates in the national currency), a central government debt (the nominal sum and the relation of a central government debt to GDP), inflation rates);

* demographic indicators (population, the number of the working population, average age of the population);

* indicators of the monetary market (size of M2). …

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