Academic journal article AEI Paper & Studies

Party Control of Congress and Support for Incumbents

Academic journal article AEI Paper & Studies

Party Control of Congress and Support for Incumbents

Article excerpt

Around 6 in 10 told Pew pollsters in January that the issue of which party controls Congress would be a factor in their vote in 2018, a response not dissimilar from late pre-election polls in 2006, 2010, and 2014. In early Gallup polls in 2010, 2014, and 2018 election years, around half said their member deserved re-election. In the final pre-election polls from 2010 and 2014, that sentiment held.

Q: Will the issue of which party controls Congress, the Republicans or the Democrats... ?

The issue of which party controls Congress...

Will be a factor in your vote                 Will not be a factor in
                                              your vote

                               2002 election
46%                            Feb. 2002      49%
48                             Nov. 2002 (*)  49
                               2006 election
                               Apr. 2006
                               Nov. 2006 (*)  36
                               2010 election
48                             Feb. 2010
                               Oct. 2010      34
                               2014 election
53                             Apr. 2014
                               Oct. 2014      34
                               2018 election
                               Jan. 2018      32

Note: Samples are registered voters. (*) Pre-election survey. The
earliest and and latest surveys in each election year are shown. … 
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