Academic journal article AEI Paper & Studies

The 2019 British General Election

Academic journal article AEI Paper & Studies

The 2019 British General Election

Article excerpt

Americans are focusing intently on their own 2020 election contest, but a consequential election will take place in Great Britain in a few days. Recent polls give the Conservatives a solid lead. Most think the election will be about Brexit, and 70 percent have Brexit fatigue.

Q: If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

                   National (GB) Nov. 28-29
                   
Would vote         
Conservative       43%
Labour             34
Liberal Democrats  13
SNP                 4
Plaid Cymru         0
Brexit Party        2

                           By 2017 Vote
                   Conservative  Labour  Liberal Democrats
                                         
Would vote                               
Conservative       86%            8%     15%
Labour              4            73      16
Liberal Democrats   5            10      67
SNP                 0             2       0
Plaid Cymru         0             1       0
Brexit Party        3             2       0

Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. The results shown here 
are what YouGov calls the "headline voting intention." The results are 
weighted by likelihood to vote, and they exclude those who would not 
vote, don't know, or refused to answer.
Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, latest that of November 28-29, 2019.

Q: Do you think this election will end up being...?

Election will be mostly about Brexit   84%
Mostly about other issues               5

Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain.
Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, October 31-November 1, 2019.

Q: Do you think you have 'Brexit fatigue'?

Have Brexit fatigue  70%
Do not               19
Don't know           11

Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain.
Source: YouGov UK, October 29, 2019.

Party Leaders' Ratings

There is widespread dissatisfaction with the way most party leaders in Britain are doing their jobs. The Ipsos MORI survey found Jeremy Corbyn has received a lower net satisfaction rating (-60 in September and again in October) than any other leader of an opposition party since the survey began asking about party leaders in 1977. Around a quarter of Brits say they don't trust any of the party leaders on the major issues, but a greater share trust Boris Johnson than trust the other leaders on Brexit, the economy, and law and order. Corbyn does best on the National Health Service.

Q: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way __ is running the country/doing his/her job as Prime Minister/leader of the Labour Party/leader of the Liberal Democrats/leader of the Brexit Party?

                       Satisfied  Dissatisfied
                       
The government         19%        74%
Boris Johnson (PM)     46         44
Jeremy Corbyn (Lab)    15         75
Jo Swinson (LibDem)    29         41
Nigel Farage (Brexit)  29         51

Responses of Conservative Party supporters

Satisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as Prime   80%
Minister                                                         
Dissatisfied                                                      9
                                                                 
Responses of Labour Party supporters                             
                                                                 
Satisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as Labour  46%
Party leader                                                     
Dissatisfied                                                     49

Note: Survey of adults in Great Britain.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, October 25-28, 2019.

Q: Which of the following party leaders would you trust more on the issue of...?

               Brexit  The National Health Service
                       
Boris Johnson  36%     25%
Jeremy Corbyn  12      30
Jo Swinson     15       6
None of them   26      23
               
               The economy  Law and order
                            
Boris Johnson  34%          34%
Jeremy Corbyn  17           17
Jo Swinson      7            6
None of them   25           23

Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. … 
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