Academic journal article International Journal of Business and Society

Modeling and Projection of Fish Supply and Demand in Malaysia, 2000-2020

Academic journal article International Journal of Business and Society

Modeling and Projection of Fish Supply and Demand in Malaysia, 2000-2020

Article excerpt

ABSTRACT

The fishery sector in Malaysia is expected to play important roles in eradicating poverty, increasing food security and helping to reverse the deficit food trade balance. In the Third Malaysian National Agriculture Policy Plan, the production target for the sector is to increase from 1.45 million mt in 2000 to two million mt by 2010. Adapting from the AsiaFish model, a disaggregated fish supply and demand model for Malaysia is constructed to analyse whether the fishery sector can live up to the expectations. The model consists of the producer, consumer and trade cores as well as the model closure equation. It is used to project fish supply, demand and trade in Malaysia from 2000 to 2020, given that existing conditions in the fishery sector and general economy persist into the future. The results appear to indicate that the Malaysian fishery sector may not be able to make significant contribution to the objectives above. Efforts need to be stepped up in order to increase fish production, reducing fish prices and increasing net value of fish trade.

Keywords: Fish supply; Demand; Trade; Price; Projection.

I. INTRODUCTION

Traditionally, the fishery sector in Malaysia plays important roles in alleviating poverty and in achieving food security. In 2003, this sector contributed about 1.37 percent to the country's GDP and provided direct employment to about 89,000 fishers and 21,000 fish farmers (Department of Fisheries, 2003). Fish is a main protein food for the majority of Malaysians and has contributed positively to the export earnings of the country.

In his keynote speech at the Seminar on the Balance of Trade Plan for the Agricultural and Food Industries, the Minister of Agriculture and Agro-Industry of Malaysia stated that the trade balance in the food sector was observed to be increasingly negative, from a deficit of RM1 billion in 1990 to about RM6.6 billion in 2004. Without public policy intervention, this negative food bill is likely to increase substantially to about RM10.9 billion by 2010. Among the agricultural sub-sectors, meat and meat preparations, animal feed, dairy products, cereals, vegetables and sugar are contributing significantly to the negative trade balances. On the other hand, fish, poultry, spices and tea are making positive contributions to the food sector. Increasing supply and export earnings from the fishery sector are expected to play a significant role in counter-balancing the negative food trade bills for Malaysia.

In the Third Malaysian National Agriculture Policy Plan, the production target for the fishery sector is to increase from 1.45 million mt in 2000 to two million mt by 2010 (Department of Fisheries, 2004). The bulk of the increase in production will be derived from aquaculture, with an expected increase of almost three-folds during this period and deep-sea capture fishery is expected to increase by two folds increase in fish production. On the other hand, the production target for coastal in-shore fishery is expected to decrease by about 20 percent during this period mainly because fisheries resources in the in-shore areas of Malaysia have been seriously overexploited.

With these high expectations, it is of utmost important to investigate to what extent the Malaysian fishery sector is able to meet these challenges through making projections of the fish supply, demand and trade in Malaysia. To date, such a comprehensive analysis has not yet been done for Malaysia although such study on a global basis was first conducted by Delgado, et al. (2003). Thus in this paper, a supply and demand model for the Malaysian fisheries was constructed for making these projections for the period from 2000 to 2020.

II. THE BASIC STRUCTURAL MODEL

The Malaysian fisheries supply and demand model is an adaptation of the AsiaFish model developed by Dey, et al. (2003). The AsiaFish model is designed for generating detailed results on supply, demand, trade and prices for the fisheries sector. …

Search by... Author
Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

Oops!

An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.