Academic journal article The Journal of Business Forecasting

The Nation's Economic Outlook

Academic journal article The Journal of Business Forecasting

The Nation's Economic Outlook

Article excerpt


The Consensus Outlook for the U.S. Economy is anything less than jubilant. While the forecasts are positive, they lack any real sense of overt optimism. The consensus data shows that real gross domestic GDP is expected to advance at an anemic rate of 1 .9% over the year, and Personal Disposable Income at a rate of 2.9% and Personal Consumer Expenditures at a rate of 2.5%.

The economy appears like an overloaded truck full of firewood just barely crawling forward hoping for some positive traction soon before having to dump the whole load by the side. Dr. Pcrryman of Perryman Group says that the economy is recovering, though numerous risks remain.

The employment picture will remain sluggish for a few more months. But the housing market is showing definitive upward movement, and consumers are beginning to show modest willingness to spend. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at the J. Mack Robinson College of Business of Georgia State University in Atlanta believes that unless the economy finds a spark similar to the Internet revolution of the 1990s or the construction boom of the early 2000s, the current recovery will be slow and drawn out through 2011 and beyond.


Given the less than robust growth expected amongst consumers, the most indicators of household's intentions are subdued. The Consensus is expecting the most watched barometer - unemployment - to remain virtually flat, suggesting on the flip side little employment growth throughout the year. …

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