Academic journal article Journal of Real Estate Literature

Real Estate Modeling and Forecasting

Academic journal article Journal of Real Estate Literature

Real Estate Modeling and Forecasting

Article excerpt

Real Estate Modeling and Forecasting. Chris Brooks and Sotiris Tsolacos, 2010, 453 pages, New York, Cambridge University Press.

This comprehensive text addresses the application of econometric modeling to real estate and has high value for both students and practitioners. The book approaches the modeling and forecasting of real estate assets in a manner that assumes the reader has little or no prior knowledge of econometrics. The authors provide numerous examples of the relationships investigated in real estate market analysis, address diagnostic checking, and provide forecast evaluation tools. The data used in the examples are available on the text's companion website.

The authors' approach and indeed perspective on textbooks addressing real estate and quantitative analysis can be best understood by an introductory statement made early in their book.

There is a dearth of textbooks specifically focused on the quantitative analysis of real estate markets, yet there has been an explosion of academic article is the last ten years offering a variety of models, estimation methodologies and finding. Nevertheless, authors often use different criteria to evaluate their models, if they use any at all, and authors avoid discussing the factors that could invalidate their findings from a modeling point of view. This could lead to considerable confusion for readers who are not already familiar with the material. More importantly, just a handful of studies in this large literature will proceed to assess the model's adequacy and to engage in comparative analysis. This book aims to equip the reader with the knowledge to understand and evaluate empirical work in real estate modeling and forecasting.

The text begins with an introductory level discussion of terminology and economic model building. This discussion also includes common models used in real estate forecasting and a summary of the economic software packages for modeling financial data. Material that follows illustrates data transformation and compilation. The reader is provided with a review of how to index a single data series, how to correct nominal data into real terms, and the calculation of compounding returns. …

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