Academic journal article Journal of Sustainable Development

A Study of the Condition of Timber Production in Iran and the Expected Production Rate in the Next Decade

Academic journal article Journal of Sustainable Development

A Study of the Condition of Timber Production in Iran and the Expected Production Rate in the Next Decade

Article excerpt

Abstract

In countries with industrial forests, the first resource for providing domestic timber is their productive forests. Iran, a country that holds a few timber forests in the north, has implemented deterministic programming in the past few decades. Knowing the process of timber production in these forests and also the condition of these products that are affected by the above mentioned programming is very crucial. Therefore, the present study focuses on the timber production of Iran's northern forests in a 33-year period (from 1978 to 2010), using simple regression analysis and time series. The results of square regression analysis revealed that this process has a significant relationship with the years under study and shows inconsistent changes. Furthermore, the overall inflation in domestic market of Iran has the highest effect on the deterministic programming of its northern forests. To predict timber production in Iran Auto-regressive moving average process 1-2 was employed, verifying the fact that the production rate will decline to about 740 thousand cubic meters. If current trends and decline in timber production continue, Iran would become increasingly dependent on imported timber. To avoid such dependence, or at least reduce it, it is necessary to change the present programming system from deterministic to dynamic, taking into account the internal and external risks in timber market such as inflation and average timber price.

Keywords: Timber production, Time series analyses, Rial value, Dollar value, Production predict

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)

1. Introduction

In the whole management system of a country, wood industry is considered to play a vital role in people's life. Forest resources and their related macro policies are the key factors of optimal management to achieve a sustainable production that is in line with the demand of timber market, known through economic analyses. Forest programming, especially to harvest timber, requires comprehensive knowledge of forest condition and economic situation of the market (Nanang, 2010). However, unfortunately, there are different statistics on the exploitation and forest industry in Iran. This is observable in different resources where the amount of harvest from northern forests of Iran varies; for example, 1.5 million cubic meters in years before 2005 (Asareh, 2008), 750 thousand cubic meters (Jalili et al., 2007) and 4 million cubic meters (Anonymous, 2006) in 2006. It is noteworthy that woodmen base their major policy makings on these very figures. This knowledge requires reliable data and appropriate techniques for each forest area so that in addition to full knowledge, optimal programming for their exploitation would become possible, especially for the coming years (Mohammadi Limaei, 2006; 2010; Kehinde, 2010).

However, in Iran, predicting timber price and harvesting volume is not based on new systematic approaches but is limited to submitting the volumetric statistics and Rial value; for instance, Abdollahpour et al. (2001) estimated the harvest amount of northern forests of Iran to be more than 44395972 cubic meters with the Rial value of 13320 billion Rials, from 1950 to 2000 (the annual average of 4.4 million cubic meters). Yachkaschi et al. (2009) stated that the Caspian forests are the only natural source of timber production in Iran. This source is capable of producing more than 900 thousand cubic meters timber per year, which can be increased to 2 million cubic meters through appropriate planning while preserving the ecological condition of these forests. Given that, it is a matter of discussion that, in Iran, where the only source of modern timber production is the northern forests, what has the timber production rate been, and what the production rate will be with regard to the past trends?

2. The Field of Study and the Data

The study area is limited to management, economy and macro policies of northern forests of Iran. …

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