Academic journal article UTMS Journal of Economics

Investigating Tourism Seasonality in Macedonia

Academic journal article UTMS Journal of Economics

Investigating Tourism Seasonality in Macedonia

Article excerpt

Abstract:

The main aim of the paper is to make an empirical investigation on tourism seasonality. Moreover, the research examines seasonal patterns in tourism in terms of tourist arrivals. In this line, the case of Macedonia is studied by employing the Gini coefficient and Seasonality Indicator, thus covering a time-frame of past two decades. The results reject the research hypothesis and point to conclusion of having low seasonality in tourism. Hence, this empirical evidence confirm that tourism flow distribution or concentration is not significant to tourism development. The contribution of this paper lies in the fact that disentangles the belief of having strong and notable high season during summer months. Additionally, this research may serve as a starting point for urging measures and activities for enhancing the up-to-date modest tourism development in Macedonia.

Key words: tourism, seasonality, Gini coefficient, seasonality indicator.

Jel Classification: L83, R1, O47

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)

INTRODUCTION

Regardless the level of economic development, each country is interested in tourism due to its various positive impacts. Generally, tourism contributes to economic growth and development, promoting international understanding and peace, improving living standard, stimulating local trade and industry development, protection of cultural heritage etc. (Goeldner, Ritchie, and McIntosh 2000). In this line, seasonality is noted as one of the most influencing factor for limiting continuous development. So, one may understand it as a phenomena that provokes incomplete and unbalanced usage of means necessary for economic development (BarOn 1973).

This research attempts to answer the main investigation question for examining any seasonal patterns in tourism in Macedonia. In order to explore this hypothesis, the paper is structured in several parts. After the introductory part, there is a section that gives a brief overview on main reasons for seasonality in tourism flows, underlining the most profound negative, as well as positive effects. The research design encompassing the methodology and research frame are posed in Section two. Section three presents the main research findings and discussion, while the conclusion remarks are noted in last part of the paper. Generally, the contribution of this paper lies in the fact that represents first attempt empirically to analyze the seasonality in tourism in Macedonia. Simultaneously, this research disentangles the belief of having strong and constant high season during summer months. Moreover, in a scientific manner is argued that the modest results in tourism development in Macedonia must not be addressed to seasonality.

SNAPSHOT ON TOURISM SEASONALITY

Seasonality in tourism has been a subject of interest among researchers and academicians thus provoking continuous debates and argumentations (BarOn 1993 and 1999; Baum 1999; Chung 2009; Higham and Hinch 2002; Jang 2004; Lundtorp 2001; Yacoumis 1980). Yet, they all generally agree that seasonality is occurred due to temporary imbalance in tourism flows caused by three types of factors:

(1) Nature (sunny days, snow falls, insolation etc.);

(2) Institutional factor (religious and pilgrimage travel, workers' holidays, students' ferries, festival events etc.); and

(3) Other factors (social pressure, personal preferences, inertness etc.).

Moreover, it is noted that this type of systematic variations may be present during the year, semester, but also in the frames of a month or a week, even in a single day (Holloway 1994; Lundberg, Krishamoorthy, and Stavenga 1995). Each of them may have positive or negative influence on tourism development.

If having negative consequences over tourism development, the researches pose the fact that seasonality may not be controlled (Allcock 1989; Edgell 1990; Laws 1991; Snepenger, Houser, and Snepenger 1990; Szivas, Riley, and Airey 2003). …

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