Academic journal article South Asian Studies

Post 2014-Afghanistan

Academic journal article South Asian Studies

Post 2014-Afghanistan

Article excerpt

ABSTRACT

The year 2014 expects to witness the pulling out of foreign forces from Afghanistan, however not absolutely. The defence matters of the country then be relinquished to Afghan National Security Forces (ANF), despite the fact that the White House does not have a unanimous opinion on the remaining numbers of troops in Afghanistan after 2014 and that number varies from 20,000 to 30, 000. However, the most important issue today has become how Afghanistan will tackle its security forces in the presence of militants and keeping in view this scenario, what would be the role of Pakistan and the US? The paper will study the pitfalls and factors, regarding the possible scenarios in Afghanistan and Pakistan following the ISAF withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014? The paper shall also discuss how the interests and actions of other powers in the wider region around Afghanistan will determine the outcomes in the coming years?

Existing Scenario

As the withdrawal time of foreign troops approaches, the existing regional developments signify that many foreign countries are keen to help Post 2014 Afghanistan, through "Money, Equipment and Training", though at present 66, 000 troops are there in Afghanistan (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/us-afghanistan-usa-security-idUSBRE8AE0WI20121115). In Lisbon Summit, Hamid Karzai, and Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary General, showed their consent on a "transition plan" for Afghanistan which was supposed to phase in the relinquish of the country's provinces to Afghan security forces from the year 2011, carrying out the move within four years (Guardian, 2010, November 20).

The Afghan army has been set up to take over the country's security as NATO's 2014 cut-offdate approaches. The "Peace Process Roadmap to 2015" also anticipates negotiations late in 2013 between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Contentiously, too, it offers that the "Taliban ought to share power by receiving "non-elected positions", for instance "provincial governorships and other regional positions". The outcome, in presumption, would be to relinquish "control of the south and the east of Afghanistan". The Taliban could also acquire "ministerial positions in Kabul without winning any election".

Today the foremost important issue which is under discussion by Obama's administration is none other than "number of troops". While on the other hand, Kabul government is getting ready for arranging peace talks with the Taliban and "backdoor diplomacy" in order to bring some of the "good" Taliban on discussion table so that a "power-sharing formula" may be worked out for post 2014; and also, Pakistan is on "tenterhooks to (be allowed to) play its role in Afghanistan" (Rashid, 2012). The role of Pakistan and the present condition of economy of Afghanistan can not be negated when one talks about the scenario, expected to prevail in the aftermath of 2014. The main reason behind these two factors is that if the allocation of funds is not fairer and more impartial, long term stability in Afghanistan remains dubious. While on the other hand, the US can never meet its "Strategic Interests" in the region, excluding which might create the security problems in the long run (Chayes, 2012).

Currently there are four diverse kinds of coalitions struggling for power and control in Afghanistan which are mainly;

i. The Ruling Alliance - which includes President Hamid Karzai, the groups of "Hizb-e-Islami, Marshal Faheem, Karim Khalili", etc.

ii. Change and Hope Coalition - Led by Non-Pashtuns which includes "Dr. Abdullah, Yonus Qanooni, Ahmad Behzad, Nur Muhammad Atta", etc.

iii. National Front Coalition - Led by Non-Pashtuns which includes "Dostum, Ahmad Zia Massoud, Mohaqiq, Amrullah Saleh", etc.

iv. Haq and Adalat (Truth and Justice Coalition) - Which includes "Hanif Atmar, Azita Rahfat", etc.

It might be possible that the two alliances led by non-Pashtuns perhaps collaborate in order to "fight the others in the subsequent elections" as both these groups yearn for a decentralized structure in Kabul whereas the remaining two wish for a "unitary, centralized state machinery" (Gupta, Behuria, Chandra & Pattanik, 2012). …

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