Academic journal article Higher Education Studies

Predictions on the Development Dimensions of Provincial Tourism Discipline Based on the Artificial Neural Network BP Model

Academic journal article Higher Education Studies

Predictions on the Development Dimensions of Provincial Tourism Discipline Based on the Artificial Neural Network BP Model

Article excerpt

Abstract

As the tourism industry has gradually become the strategic mainstay industry of the national economy, the scope of the tourism discipline has developed rigorously. This paper makes a predictive study on the development of the scope of Guangdong provincial tourism discipline based on the artificial neural network BP model in order to find out how the branch of tourism studies can better adapt to the development of the tourism industry. The research findings indicate that the BP model can be applied to the predictions of the scope of the tourism discipline and provide a quantitative basis for decision making with regard to the spatial layout and optimal allocation of the tourism discipline.

Keywords: artificial neural network, BP model, tourism discipline

1. Introduction

During the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the State Council clearly proposed to develop the tourism industry into the strategic pillar industry of the national economy and into a modern service industry more satisfactory to the people. The tourism industry has become an important part of the national strategy. In 2011, the number of people involving domestic travel reached 2.641billion with the income of 193.0539 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2 percent and 23.6 percent over the previous year respectively. The tourism consumption has played a significant role in the expansion of domestic demand. Meanwhile, the construction of tourism discipline and the training of tourism talents in the country have made great achievements. Tourism management has become an independent discipline of management science and equals to business management in status as a main discipline with its own subordinate disciplines, namely tourism management, hotel management and exhibition economy and management. Accordingly tourism talent system with the characteristics of tourism industry has also been fundamentally established. And various kinds of talents in line with the rapid development of tourism industry have gradually expanded. Till 2011, 1115 ordinary institutions of higher learning had set up undergraduate major in tourism colleges across the country, increased by 148 over that of the year 2010 with the number of undergraduates at school reaching 599.8 thousand. But compared with the rapid developing tourism industry, there still exists relatively huge gap with regard to the total talent number, the poor overall quality of the talents, the unequipped discipline system, and the inadequate support for tourism education. Therefore The Outline of Chinese Tourism Industry during the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan pointed out that we should balance the building of the talents of the tourism industry under the guidance of the development demand of the tourism industry, improve the overall quality of tourism education, reinforce the construction of tourism discipline, and optimize the system and course design of the tourism major so as to promote the status of tourism discipline and cultivate the tourism talents meeting the market demand. Thus, it is particularly meaningful to explore the major factors influencing the development scale of tourism discipline and the quantitative predictions of these factors to properly control the scale development of tourism discipline.

2. The Research Status Quo of Tourism Higher Education at Home and Abroad

In general, foreign scholars' researches on tourism higher education mode mostly are demonstrative ones with the region as a unit. They own relatively broad research range, unique perspective and conclusions that are region-oriented and directive. Jafari founded Annals of Tourism Research in 1974. Ever since 1979, a special issue gets published every year summarizing the relations between tourism industry and tourism education, theories and methods. Greg Richards (1998) has constructed the network education system that is suitable for the development of the integration of European tourism industry based on European integration. …

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