Academic journal article Canadian Social Science

Research on the Scenarios and Scenario Evolution of Unconventional Emergency Management

Academic journal article Canadian Social Science

Research on the Scenarios and Scenario Evolution of Unconventional Emergency Management

Article excerpt


These years, unconventional emergencies are happening frequently, and have affected the country and the normal life of the people. Studies of unconventional emergency have become hot topics in international research. Unconventional emergency has the following features, such as high uncertainty, time pressing and serious result. Especially, high uncertainty certainly leads to the result that the decision-making main body will face various concrete conditions in the decision management of unconventional emergency, which requests us to use the contextual model to make decision and manage it effectively when the emergency occurs. This text has an analysis of scenarios and scenario evolution of unconventionality emergency, which lays a theoretic foundation for a further analyzing the type of "context-correspondence" of the decision and management in unconventionality emergency.

Key words: Unconventional emergency; Decisionmaking management; The scenarios; Scenario evolution


"Scenario - response" has been regarded as unconventional emergency response more effective emergency management. Because of the lack of precursor, time is pressing, serious consequences, etc., often unconventional emergencies to social stability and people's normal life bring very serious challenge. Therefore, for emergencies emergency management research interdisciplinary research at home and abroad to become a major issue. "Scenario - to deal with" the basic requirement is to unconventional emergencies portray different stages of development into a series of scenarios, according to emergency scenarios on unconventional emergency decision making. At present, the domestic experts and scholars on the scene is also understood to vary. Scenario is the current status of the development of the event, similar events in the past situation and the current situation there is likely to develop in the future position, which both objective historical data and real-time information, but also decision-making body of the subjective judgments (Hou, Yang, Zhang, & Zhang, 2009). Understood as the scenario of events of the "situation", that the current state of events and trends (Huang & Zhao, 2009). Summarizes the current domestic and foreign experts and scholars on "scene" of different perceptions. In the study scenario, based on the number of experts and scholars on the "situational evolution" has been studied (Han, Year). Scene by the initial scene, the intermediate scenario, end scenarios consisting of, from the initial to the intermediate scenario development scenarios, and then from the middle to the end of the development scenarios Scenario process, is the process of evolution scenario. Based on the literature, based on a study of unconventional emergency evolution scenarios have been studied (Huang & Zhao, 2009). Based on this, only to better understand the situation and its evolution scenarios dynamic law in order to deal more effectively with unconventional emergencies.


1.1 Definition of Unconventional Emergencies

A series of unexpected events, including sudden or difficult to deal with new events, unconventional emergencies is a strong destructive power, and can not effectively deal with in a short time emergencies, belonging to a very small probability events, with strong sudden and unpredictable sexual characteristics. Emergencies and unconventional concept corresponds to conventional emergencies, unexpected events generally belong to conventional emergencies, only when the government mishandling or unreasonable, resulting in a series of secondary, derivative and coupling events, so that routine emergencies into unconventional emergencies.

In academic research, often to emergencies and disasters, disaster risk management, crisis management, and however, for emergencies defines more from the perspective of crisis management. Hermann states: "The crisis is more emphasis on the decision-making body is compromised when a time-urgent, difficult to predict and anticipate the harm is considered a scenario-based state. …

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