Academic journal article Canadian Social Science

Mathematical Analysis on the Data of Security Situation in Pakistan 2009-2013

Academic journal article Canadian Social Science

Mathematical Analysis on the Data of Security Situation in Pakistan 2009-2013

Article excerpt

Abstract

In 2009, Pakistan army launched two armed operations to clean up the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan in Federally Admnustered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Provmce (In 2010, Pakistan parliament approved a resolution: the North West Frontier Provmce officially changed its name to the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province.). At the same time, the security situation in Pakistan began to worsen rapidly. Although the Pakistan army gradually achieved results by military offensive, but did not significantly improve the security situation m Pakistan. Because its strength was much weaker than Pakistan army, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan didn't wish to make head-on confrontation with Pakistan army. Thus the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Pakistan army both observably reduced their losses. But the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan transferred its targets of retaliation from Pakistan army to Pakistan civilian, resulting in a substantial increase in Pakistan civilian casualties. So, Pakistan counter-terrorism objectives should focus on the protection of civilians, preventing Pakistan from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan hitting civilian targets. If Pakistan could maintain the social stability, it will have more possibilities to win final victory in the war on terror.

Key words: Pakistan; Security situation; Quantitative analysis

i mxd AiSÍ iV'XiV^kÍ 1 INTRODUCTION

The outbreak of the September 11 incident lead Pakistan into the American led alliance against terrorism. Pakistan actively cooperated with the America war on terror, and achieved remarkable results. But at the same time, the security situation in Pakistan gradually worsened. In 2007, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan established formally. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan's threats to Pakistan national security were "fusing. In 2009, the Tehrik-e-Taliban la'm,chJeda ""tmuous offensive to the government of Pakistan, led the Pakistan army to wipe out the Tehnk-^ e-Taliban Pakistan. Pakistan army launched two armed operations in Swat and South Wazinstan to clean up the Tehnk-e-Taliban Pakistan. At the same time, the security situation in Pakistan began to worsen rapidly. Although the Pakistan army gradually achieved results by military offensive> bu( did nQt signiflcantly improve ^ security úmúi)n ^ Pakistan Because i(s strength was much weaker Pakistan amiy ^ Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan didn't wish (0 make head_on confrontation with Pakistan army. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Pakistan army both observably reduced their iosses. But the Tehrik-e-Taliban f»akistan transferred its targets of retaliation from Pakistan army to Pakistan civilian, resulting in a substantial increase Pakistan civilian casualties,

1. PAKISTAN ARMY ATTACKED THE TEHRIK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN

In 2009, the Pakistan government made significant gains, clearing several areas of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan's control. On February 16, the North West Frontier Province government signed a peace agreement with the Tehriki-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM), in the hope of restoring the writ of government in Malakand Division. While the North West Frontier Province government acceded to all the demands of the TNSM, the latter refused to lay down their weapons. On April 19, TNSM leader Sufi Mohammad announced his disregard for the political system of Pakistan and asked governmentappointed judges to leave Malakand Division. This is the turning point, provoking a full-scale military operation across Malakand Division. Hundreds of terrorists were killed, injured, and arrested in the operation. The military operation succeeded in a pure military perspective.

On August 4, leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Baitullah Mehsud was killed by U.S. drone. The top three leaders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Hakimullah Mehsud, Wali-ur-Rehman Mehsud, and Qari Hussain, jockeyed for power after Baitullah Mehsud's death. Hakimullah Mehsud was eventually made the consensus leader. And the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan increased its attacks. …

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