Academic journal article Asian Social Science

Modeling of Sustainable Development of the Region on the Basis of Cognitive Analysis

Academic journal article Asian Social Science

Modeling of Sustainable Development of the Region on the Basis of Cognitive Analysis

Article excerpt

Abstract

The present study considers the possibility of applying the cognitive analysis to the modeling of sustainable development of the region. The study contains the definition and the classification of the main criteria for assessing the sustainability of the regional socio-economic system. The study offers the application of the cognitive approach as a powerful tool for the study of unstable environment and modeling of semi-structured systems. The author sets out the key provisions of the methodology and points out the stages of cognitive analysis of complex socio-economic systems. The present study illustrates the possibility of practical implementation of the methodology for the cognitive analysis and modeling of the regional socio-economic system on the example of the Chelyabinsk region. By constructing a matrix of the pair correlation the target and control factors have been selected, the analysis of the interaction of key indicators of social and economic stability of the region has been conducted. The validation of the developed model has proved the possibility of its use for predicting the target factors, modeling of possible situations and development of scenarios of strategies for sustainable development of the region.

Keywords: cognitive map, sustainable development, semi-structured system, socio-economic system, scenario modeling, regression model, correlation analysis

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)

1. Introduction

One of the most discussed issues attracting the attention of scientists and practitioners at the state, regional and local levels of the management is the study of the management of sustainable development of the country as a whole and individual regions (Hollingsworth, 2005). Dynamism and diversity of the processes require an adequate choice of technique and instrumental apparatus that can facilitate the analysis of the problems and develop an optimal model for sustainable development of a particular area. The development of such a model shall be based on an array of qualitative and quantitative information sufficient for determination of the disparities and tendencies in the socio-economic development of the region and allowing to predict the dynamics of the processes (Bourgine, 2004).

Cognitive modeling is one of the effective tool allowing to obtain the required scope of the information and conduct the analysis of poorly formalized complex systems (Midlarsky, 1997).

2. Methods

In recent years, the basis for future developments in the study of the behavior of the problem-oriented complex systems has become a cognitive approach, which makes it relatively easy to represent the structure of the socio-economic system, identify the cause-effect relationships between the elements of the system, as well as to predict its further development.

The cognitive approach to the study of complex systems involves the solution of an interrelated set of problems of the system analysis, namely: identification of the object and the socio-economic environment in the form of the cognitive model; analysis of the cycles and directions of the cognitive model; conduct of the analysis on controllability, stability, sensitivity, adaptability; scenario analysis, etc.

For solution of these problems there are many specific and general theoretical approaches and methods, which include the following methods: methods of expert, statistical, analytical identification, methods of graph theory, methods of control theory, methods of general systems theory, etc.

The development of contemporary management methods requires specifying the scenario conditions of socio-economic development of the region. The main methods of scenario analysis include scenario planning, situational analysis, surge modeling, etc.

3. Results and Discussion

The main indicator of the efficiency of functioning of the region representing a complex socio-economic system is the stability of its development. …

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