Academic journal article Global Economic Observer

Consequences of the Demographic Crisis

Academic journal article Global Economic Observer

Consequences of the Demographic Crisis

Article excerpt

1. Introduction

Demography studies the dynamics of human population. It is the science referring to the size, structure and territory repartition of the population as well as the method in which this population evolves in time for the births, deceases, migrations and aging. Societies' basics can be analyzed from a demographical standpoint or we can refer only to groups defined after certain criteria: the level of culture and civilization, nationality, standard of living, religion etc.

In 1878 within the second International Congress of hygiene, Emile Levasseur proposes the term of "demography" to designate a distinctive science, a tenu that replaced the already acknowledged theories regarding social statistics, social physics or theories of the population. It was only after four years after this statement that the term "demography" was officially introduced during the international Congress of hygiene and demography by describing the new science of population.

While demography emerged at the same time with statistics in the 19th century, it separated from said to become an independent science with a distinctive domain of research and analysis. Demography is now a border discipline: by its research processes, it belongs to mathematics, however through the analysis of the investigations' results it belongs to the field of social-economic and political sciences. At present, on an European and global level, demography records the most rapid progresses within the field of social sciences.

In the demographic study, quantitative and qualitative numerical data are used, which are gathered through censuses, questionnaires or through the mean of governmental institutions which offer statistical data regarding the population's changes (births, deaths, marriages, etc.). The demographic data can also result from media surveys carried out with a commercial purpose and based on methods of indirect estimation. The first modern census is considered to be the performance one that took place in 1790 in the United States.

Renowned authors have contributed with their theories and analyses to the demographic science: John Graunt, who is considered to be the first statistician and demographer, Thomas Robert Malthus, whose theory says that the population is growing in a geometrical progression, while the sustenance means are growing in an arithmetical progression - as a consequence of this relation between the population and the economic state, Malthus considers poverty, diseases, epidemics and wars to be positive factors for humanity, given the fact that they insure the equilibrium between the population's number and the quantity of sustenance, Achille Guillard, who defined demography as "the mathematical knowledge of the populations, their general moves and physical, civil, intellectual and moral states".

Demographic studies focus not only on the demographic evolution of a certain area, country or even an entire terrestrial civilization, but they also serve an economic and political environment purpose, as the reports between the population and human groups and the production, repartition and consumption of natural resources and treasures can be tracked.

Demographical analyses are also necessary from the social and economic politics point of view, for the knowledge of the tax payer population or from the perspective of the economic capacity and military potential of a country. The public politics of a government, including those regarding medical assistance, insurance system and pensions, increase their consideration for the demographical analyses, evolutions and prognoses.

The demographical changes from the last years have multiple consequences under an economic, social, political and durable development aspect. This study is aimed at emphasizing a part of these consequences and their implications on the governmental politics and strategies.

2. Theoretical background

In 1999, UNO announced the birth of the 6th billion person on this planet (Adnan Nevic, born in Sarajevo). …

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