Academic journal article Asian Social Science

The Preliminary Study of Climate Change Impact on Rice Production and Economic in Thailand

Academic journal article Asian Social Science

The Preliminary Study of Climate Change Impact on Rice Production and Economic in Thailand

Article excerpt


Climate change affects crop production in two ways: changes in GDP and population and changes in climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. This study aims to investigate preliminary effects of climate change impacts on Thailand's rice production, consumption, and export capacity by integrated EPIC model and the world and Thai rice market models. Therefore, the Biophysical process model (EPIC model) and Economic processes model are employed as the research methodology of this study. Main findings of the comparison showed both rice production and export in the base year (2007) are likely to expand until 2027, and there will be a sufficient amount of rice surplus for export, which is nearly the same level as that of domestic consumption in A2 scenario. In 2017, the amount of rice production will be only slightly higher than the domestic demand, leaving a small rice surplus of up to 2 million tons for export, compared to 14 million tons in 2016. However, in B2 scenario, the rice production capacity will be much lower than the domestic demand, meeting only half of it in 2017. From 2017 to 2019, the rice production capacity will undergo a constant fall and no longer meet the market demand as a result; it is estimated that there will be a shortage of approximately 0.038 to 0.218 ton. It is therefore important to note that if B2 scenario became reality in 2017, the rice production capacity of Thailand would nearly fail to meet the minimum level of domestic demand. However, we assure that Thailand still have land where can be converted to rice production with multiple cropping through irrigation investment, while comprehensive technical adaptation and mitigation to enhance farmer benefits are required.

Keywords: climate change, economic impact, rice production, Thailand

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1. Introduction

Thailand is a major exporter of agricultural products with rice as one of its most important crops. Rice has not only played a part in contributing to food security of the world but also been an essential part of the Thai society and its culture for a very long time. Rice is the heart of the way of life of farmers in Thailand. However, there are many factors that have contributed to food insecurity these days. One of the factors is climate change, which has brought negative impacts to food production throughout the world. It has resulted not only in the increased temperature and decreased productivity but also in greater numbers of less predictable disasters such as drought. For decades scientists have agreed on the list of greenhouse gases - including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) - that lead to the change of global temperatures and amounts of rainfall (IPCC, 2007). Studies have been conducted on climate change's impacts on several aspects as well as the plausible ways of minimizing such impacts in the future. There are also studies on climate change's impacts on rice production at national and international scales. According to the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2008, humid tropical zones will suffer negative impacts of the climate change, which definitely affects the way of life and food production. Various studies have been conducted to measure the effects of climate change impacts on net farm revenue such as integration of the Environment Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model (Wu et al., 2007), ORYZA 2000 (Vaghefi et al., 2011), Global circulation model (GCM) (Tumbo et al., 2010), Ricardian model (Fleischer et al., 2007; Ajetomobi, 2010; Thapa and Joshi, 2010; Mendelsohn, 2014), Statistical approaches were used to analyze the relationships between observed yield and climate (Chen et al., 2013; Huang et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2014). Mostly, their outcome found that rice production will decline with increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, with decrease the net revenue per hectare, especially in dry land and non-irrigated areas. …

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