Academic journal article Asian Social Science

Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Food Security Level in View of Import Substitution

Academic journal article Asian Social Science

Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Food Security Level in View of Import Substitution

Article excerpt

Abstract

Strategy of development of any country's economy supposes the purpose of achieving and preserving food security which is determined as the state's capability, guaranteed by corresponding resource potential, to satisfy - independently from external and internal conditions and in stable manner - the need of country's population on the whole and of each citizen for food products and drinking water in volumes, assortment, and quality, sufficient for full physical and social development, health support, and provision of expanded reproduction. The problem of provision of food security remains topical since the start of liberalization of foreign economic policy in Russia. The authors of the article use the mathematical tool of fuzzy logic to develop economic & mathematical model of evaluation of the level of food security in view of import substitution. By the example of the Russian Federation, the authors show the manifestation of the problem of food security under the modern conditions, and how this problem can be solved with the help of import substitution. The developed economic & mathematical model allows modeling the functioning of the system through setting the corresponding components of vectors. Implementation of the offered food model allows receiving integral evaluation of the state of food security and determining comparative characteristics of the values of threats to food security on the basis of their automatized evaluation.

Keywords: food security, economic & mathematical modeling, modeling the level of food security, import substitution

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)

1. Introduction

In all developed countries, the state - with the help of various economic and financial actions and methods (including the system of subsidies and compensations, tax exemptions, reduction of tariffs for resources used by agriculture, system of crediting and insurance with compensations from budget, etc.) - provides constant support for agriculture. This allows not only improving food provision of country's population but exporting large volumes of agricultural production and food products.

New political system of the Russian federation and emerging global economic relations required rethinking of the notion of "food security", specification of its main principles and peculiar features. One of the criteria of food security of citizens is the level, at which at least 80% of food products, consumed by population, are produces by domestic agrarian sector. This research performs evaluation and modeling of the level of food security in view of import substitution. The subject of the research is food security of modern Russia.

2. Materials and Methods

Founding on the totality of theoretical suggestions which treat the food security level of production enterprises as a function of interconnected and exogenous factors, influencing the production, it is possible to evaluate the level of threats with the help of mathematical tool of fuzzy logic which is widely used in the systems of artificial intellect. The offered approach allows evaluating the causes and scales of emergence of crisis situations more adequately and receiving indicative instrumentarium for increasing the level of food security.

Mathematical tool of fuzzy logic is used when existing quantitative and qualitative information is not enough, or it is not sufficient for receiving statistically significant conclusions with the required level of reliability. This approach allows forming the portfolio of project decisions on the basis of fuzzy evaluations of their technical and economic indicators by expert ranking, or solving the formulated task of economic & mathematical optimization. Flexibility and universality of methods of the fuzzy mathematics theory allow viewing them as an effective instrumentarium for solving various perspective tasks of analysis of alternative projects and variants.

As an instrumental means, which implements the viewed approach, a package of applied programs FuzzyLogicToolbox of MatLab computer mathematics environment can be recommended; it allows creating systems of fuzzy logical conclusions and fuzzy classifications with possibility of their integration into Simulink program. …

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