Academic journal article Economics & Sociology

Demographic and Human Capital Heterogeneity in Selected Provinces of Turkey: A Scenario Analysis Using Multi-Dimensional Population Projection Model

Academic journal article Economics & Sociology

Demographic and Human Capital Heterogeneity in Selected Provinces of Turkey: A Scenario Analysis Using Multi-Dimensional Population Projection Model

Article excerpt

Introduction

The term 'human capital' can be defined as the sum of competencies, knowledge, social and personality attributes, including creativity embodied in the ability to perform labour so as to produce economic value. Many theories demonstrably draw the attention to the relationship between investment in human capital development and education, economic development, productivity growth, and innovation. This relationship has frequently been cited as a justification for government subsidies for education and job skills training (Weeks, 2002). Participation in education can be seen as an investment in human capital made with the expectation of better returns1 later in life and thus the process of education has a central role in the production of human capital (Becker, 1964; Milewski et al., 2015). At the macro-social level, more education often means improved productivity and income, and economic development which in return implies a better quality of life. At the micro-social level, more education tends to imply a healthier and better-nourished population and greater autonomy for women (Jejeebhoy, 1995; Martin and Juarez, 1995; Lutz and Goujon, 2001; Basu, 2002; Goujon and Lutz, 2004; Joshi and David, 2006; KC et al., 2010; Flandorfer and Fliegenschnee, 2010).

Almost universally, women with higher levels of education demonstrably limit their births and in general have greater access to birth control. Typically, in all societies, better educated individuals or parents have lower mortality rates and their children have better chances of survival and attainment of education (Lutz and KC, 2011, p. 588). Education is also an important determinant for a wide range of demographic behaviour of individuals, as it powerfully affects fertility, mortality, and migration (Jejeebhoy, 1995; KC et al., 2010; Bongaarts, 2010). This effect of education on fertility is particularly apparent in countries or regions that are in the early phases of their fertility transition or countries that have prominent regional-socio-economic and cultural differences. Spatially, the patterns in the relationship between education and demographic behaviour are diverse, varying by world region as well as by the level of socio-economic development and cultural conditions (Jejeebhoy, 1995; Bongaarts, 2003). These patterns and relationships raise certain questions, in some contexts (Turkish), about whether or to what extent modest increases in education, especially among females, lead to differences in demographic behaviour. Capturing the differences in the distribution of educational attainment categories and inter-cohort changes across different spatial levels has a particular importance for regional development and to study the consequence of improving human capital on society and economy (Lutz and KC, 2011).

Turkey has experienced many socio-economic and cultural changes in the last century. These changes can be seen as a "modernisation" of state, institutions and society, and as a whole, shaping the social structure and improving the human capital (Ediev et al., 2012). These significant changes can be observed in some of the historical-basic demographic measures of the country. At the beginning of the last century Turkey had a population of only 13.6 million, however, it has with a current population slightly over 75 million (Turkish Statistical Institute1 (TSI), 2012a, b). Since the early 1960s, Turkey has experienced steep fertility declines, as in most other developing countries (Yüceçahin and Özgür, 2008). While the total fertility rate (TFR) in the early 1960s was around 6 children per woman, by 2014, Turkey had fallen slightly above the replacement level, with an estimated TFR of 2.17 children per woman (TSI, 2015) despite there are ethnic differences (Sirkeci, 2000 and Sirkeci, 2006). While now still in transition, the country is widely expected to continue further declines in fertility levels in the near future. A number of studies note that the last phase of demographic transition of Turkey will be completed by the mi ddle of this century (Koray, 1997; Ünalan, 1997; HUIPS, 2010; Ediev et al. …

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