Academic journal article Migration Letters

Contribution of Migration to Replacement of Population in Turkey

Academic journal article Migration Letters

Contribution of Migration to Replacement of Population in Turkey

Article excerpt

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)


Migration is usually contextualized with fertility and mortality in most fundamental explanations of the basic components of population change. So indeed individuals have an impact on the size of population through birth and death naturally but, in all probability, many times through migration (White and Lindstrom, 2006; Rowland, 2012). Migration is the most-repeated demographic behaviour of individuals and the least predictable component of population change, and it is harder to define than the other demographic growth processes, namely mortality and fertility (Yaukey et al., 2007: 324; Newbold, 2010: 126; Yüce^ahin et al., 2015: 2-4). However, migration is frequently the main component of population growth or decline both at the community and regional levels. Apart from its complexity, migration theoretically favours population growth at the place of destination at the expense of growth at the place of origin, both directly through the simple exchange of population and indirectly through contributions to the population reproduction, age selectivity, and differential fertility (Sivamurthy, 1982; Mitra, 1984; Ediev, 1999 and 2007; Alho, 2008; Ortega and del Rey, 2007; Ediev et al., 2014). Therefore, it is important to take into account the implications of migration for the net migration rate (Rogers, 1966; Willekens, 1977; Rogers and Willekens, 1978; Inaba, 2009) at the regional level. In the long term, migration is also likely to favour the workforce at the place of destination, to the detriment of the place of origin. Selectivity on the one hand brings younger labourers and skills in demand to the destination's workforce, and on the other hand removes these from the population of origin (Yaukey et al., 2007).

In many countries, net migration greatly exceeds natural change, driving population growth or slowing population decline (Ediev et al., 2014). The contributions of net migration to population change are even more substantial at the subnational level. However, conventional demographic indicators ignore the role of migration as a supplement to fertility as a factor of population replacement and change. The indirect contributions of migration to population change may be studied by recently devised indicators measuring the migratory contributions to population reproduction as compared to fertility (Ediev et al., 2014: 624-625). Here, we apply this approach to study how migration affects population change and replacement across Turkey.

As in most other developing countries, the fertility rate in Turkey has seen dramatic declines over the past five decades. The fact that Turkey's total fertility rate declined from 6.28 children per woman to around two between the early 1960s and the early 2000s shows that the country has experienced a rapid fertility transition. Thus, a number of studies argue that Turkey is in the final phase of the demographic transition (Yavuz, 2006; Yüce^ahin and Özgür, 2008; Yüce^ahin, 2009; HUIPS, 2010). Although Turkey has recently reached slightly above the replacement level of fertility, there remain marked regional demographic differentials.

Beginning with the proclamation of the Turkish Republic in 1923, the inadequacy and imbalanced diffusion of social and economic developmental initiatives, meant to spread modernisation throughout the country, served to exacerbate the substantive regional inequalities to the detriment of the eastern regions (Yüceçahin and Özgür, 2008). During the whole period after 1923, regional divergence in socio-economic development was accompanied by marked inter-provincial migration and prominently concentrated migration flows, particularly from poor eastern provinces to the relatively developed western regions and particularly the large metropolitan areas of the country. This process, especially after the 1950s, led to a rapid urbanisation process which resulted mainly from rural to urban migration and market adjustment to the inter-sector shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services (Eraydin, 2006: 37). …

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