Academic journal article Iranian Journal of Public Health

Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran

Academic journal article Iranian Journal of Public Health

Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran

Article excerpt

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The human body is affected by the thermal environment, influenced by many different factors air temperature, radiant temperature, humidity and air movement are the four basic environmental variables that affect human response to thermal environments (1-3). The relationship between high temperatures and the increase in mortality and disease rates has been described in detail for all over the world (4, 5). Usually days with high and low temperatures have relationships with mortality rate (6-9). The relationship between temperature and mortality had been extensively studied in Europe (10), United States (11-14) Australia (15-21), Korea (22) and Iran (24). For example, the change in all natural mortality associated with 1 °C increase in maximum temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Evaluating the association between ambient air temperature and specific health outcomes can help in identifying vulnerable populations and formulating preventive actions (25).

Cardiovascular diseases are considered as the first causes of morality in the world and the morality caused by these diseases are much more than any other causes (26). Several studies have examined the effects of air temperature on overall cardiovascular mortality (10, 27). The relationship be- tween temperature and morality caused by cardiovascular diseases in forms of v, u, and j. This issue indicates that the risk of mortality of cardiovascular diseases increases for days with hot and cold temperatures (28).

According to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, climate change is likely to affect human health directly through changes in temperature and precipitation and indirectly through changes in the ranges of disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) and other channels (29). Climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century (17, 30). Future climate change will increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves (31). Not only has the global average temperature increased, but the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures (e.g., heat waves and cold spells) have, also, the projected changes in surface air temperature in West Asia range between 1.26 and 6.3 °C over the period 2010-2099 (with respect to the baseline period (1961-1990) for the B1 and A1F1 scenarios (32).

The projected temperature rise, along with higher frequency and intensity of heat waves, is expected to increase heat-related premature mortality and illnesses (33, 34). A growing number of studies have projected future heat-related mortality due to climate change in recent years (35-37).

The heat-related mortality were estimated in the UK in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s (38). The present-day relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality rates will apply in the future, and have applied an ensemble of climate models working from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Using the same method (39) investigated future heat-related mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney), they showed that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. Besides, Heatwave considered under three different climate change scenarios for 2081-2100 and in the absence of adaptation (40). Their results showed city of Chicago, Illinois could experience between 166 and 2217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from 7 global climate models. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. Studies in this field are limited in Iran and a lot of them have been conducted outside Iran. …

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