Academic journal article Southeast Asian Affairs

Concluding Remarks

Academic journal article Southeast Asian Affairs

Concluding Remarks

Article excerpt

In conclusion, one might wonder where Indonesia will head in 1998 after the events of the previous year? A number of analysts have already predicted that 1998 will be the most difficult year for Indonesia. In terms of economic growth, the most common estimate is that it will not be higher than 3 per cent. Even though the APEC Economic Committee estimated that Indonesia's economy would grow by 6 per cent in 1998,96 Indonesian economists seem to be less optimistic. For example, economist Mari E. Pangestu has predicted that Indonesia's economy would grow at 1 to 3 per cent in 1998. Unemployment would become one of the most pressing issues for the government. It is predicted that unemployment could rise from 7 to 11 per cent.97 In such circumstances, keeping public order would present a formidable task for the security forces.

What clearly worries many people is the possible impact of the economic crisis on political stability. A protracted crisis would surely affect the very foundation of the New Order's legitimacy which, since its inception in 1966, has relied primarily on its promise to deliver material well-being for all Indonesians. …

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