Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review is a magazine specializing in Finance topics.

Articles from Vol. 91, No. 5, September-October

Can the Term Spread Predict Output Growth and Recessions? A Survey of the Literature
This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity. Most studies use linear regression techniques...
Mexico's Integration into NAFTA Markets: A View from Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
The authors use a threshold autoregressive model to confirm the presence of nonlinearities in sectoral real exchange rate dynamics across Mexico, Canada, and the United States for the periods before and after the North American Free Trade Agreement...
Systemic Risk and the Financial Crisis: A Primer
How did problems in a relatively small portion of the home mortgage market trigger the most severe financial crisis in the United States since the Great Depression? Several developments played a role, including the proliferation of complex mortgage-backed...
The Credit Crisis and Cycle-Proof Regulation
This article was originally presented as the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, April 15, 2009. ********** First, I would like to thank the St. Louis Fed, especially Kevin Kliesen,...