Business Economics

Professional journal of the National Association of Business Economists covering topics such as macro and microeconomics, monetary and fiscal policy, business forecasting, international economics, and deregulation.

Articles from Vol. 38, No. 4, October

A Reassessment of the Purchasing Managers' Index
The Report on Business for manufacturing by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), is a highly significant indicator of economic activity (Niemira and Zukowski, 1998). The centerpiece...
Capital Overhangs: Has Equipment Investment Spending Suffered from a Hangover?
This paper examines the role of capital equipemnt overhangs in recent investment fluctuations using a measure based on the Jorgenson neoclassical model of investment. This measure has several advantages over capacity utilization--in particular, wider...
Charles P. Kindleberger 1912-2003
Another of the great economists of the post-World War II era left us when Charles P. Kindleberger died on July 7th at the age of 92. He was the recipient of NABE's Adam Smith Award in 1983 and addressed NABE with the question: "Was Adam Smith a Monetarist...
December Will Bring Major Changes to the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts
On December 10, 2003 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the results of a comprehensive, or benchmark, revision of the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs).(1) This type of revision differs from an annual NIPA revision because...
Flat Panel Displays
The world market for flat panel displays (FPDs) is nearly $38 billion in 2003. Between 2000 and 2006, worldwide FPD revenues are expected to grow at a rate of nearly 18 percent/year, to $66 billion in 2006. Few--if any--markets of this size are growing...
Forecasting with Leading Economic Indicators-A Neural Network Approach
Single-index models and the selection of leading indicator variables are normally based on linear regression methods. Moreover, in statistical modeling of the business cycle, it has been well established that cycles are asymmetric. (See, for example,...
From the Editor
We note with sadness the passing of Charles P. Kindleberger, a recipient of the Adam Smith Award and one of the giants in international economics and economic history. Thomas W. Synott, III, has provided us with an eloquent tribute to the man and his...
Pension Profits Become Corporate Costs
In mid-June of this year, Standard & Poor's fretted that the S&P 500 companies' underfunding of their defined benefit pension funds had jumped to $226 billion from $212 billion at the end of 2002. In mid-August, however, after substantial increases...
Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System
This paper outlines a method for making effective use of monthly indicators to develop a current-quarter GDP forecast. Estimates and projections of real GDP growth are usually used to describe how the economy is doing. But estimates of GDP are only...
The Expected Rate of Return for Equities: A Ten-Year and a Thirty-Year Forecast
In their defined benefit plans, most companies assume a rate of return for the assets that accords with the historical return on equities. By analyzing the sources of return, however, it can be easily seen that a repetition of that historical performance...
The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation
People are surprised that the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) has an economics function. They are even more surprised to find that we also have an economic consulting practice, but more on this later. The LAEDC (a private...