Business Economics

Professional journal of the National Association of Business Economists covering topics such as macro and microeconomics, monetary and fiscal policy, business forecasting, international economics, and deregulation.

Articles from Vol. 41, No. 4, October

Energy Information Administration Provides Extensive Data on Petroleum Supply and Demand Conditions
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. Created by Congress in 1977, the mission of EIA is to provide "policy-independent data, forecasts, and analyses to promote sound policy making,...
Expected Future Budget Deficits and the U.S. Yield Curve: History Indicates That Larger Deficits Make It Steeper
Because of important demographic forces pertaining to impending social security and Medicare entitlement expenditures, very large budget deficits will occur in the next two decades barring significant federal legislation pertaining to these entitlements...
From the Editor
NABE's Annual Meeting was held September 10-12 in Boston and, as always, was marked by its president's valedictory and by awards. This issue is heavily influenced by that event. William Poole, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St....
Original Equipment Suppliers Association
My career has taken me from academic researcher developing position papers on health care, trade flows and value chains, to equity analyst following small- and mid-cap stocks, to forecaster creating sales and production outlooks and performing general...
Pricing of Mutual Fund Services in Retirement Plans: Evidence from Open-End Equity Funds; Performance Counts, but So Does Market Power
Management fees of mutual funds are more costly to investors than is often realized. Moreover, research indicates that in many cases, the fees are not related to performance, contrary to what might be expected from an efficient market. This study uses...
Productivity and Wages: Investment in Physical and Human Capital Must Be Supported by Incentives
The United States' output per capita is approximately 30 percent higher than in the developed European countries and Japan, and its productivity growth is among the highest in the world. Much of this record has been due to an environment that fosters...
Reflections of a Professional Life-Long Fed Watcher: Fed-Watching Is Unlikely to Become Obsolete
Policymaking at the Fed and Fed watching by the markets have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. In the 1970s, targets and instruments shifted constantly, and the prevalent belief in the Fed was that its deliberations should be as opaque as...
Strengthening Globalization's Invisible Hand: What Matters Most? Developed Financial Markets, Human Capital, Access to Technology, and Strong Legal Systems Are Essential for Healthy Economic Growth
In this paper, we investigate what matters most to sustaining strong economic growth in today's more globalized, knowledge economy. An examination of 2005-2006 statistical and survey data across 52 countries reveals that economic growth is driven mainly...
The Monetary Policy Model: "Rational Expectations" Is the Basis for Setting and Understanding Monetary Policy
Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals and the policymakers' model of the economy....