Economic Trends

Economic Trends is a monthly economic journal that provides analyses of current economic developments. Its audience consists of economists, bankers and those studying economics. Founded in 1979, Economic Trends has a circulation of about 8,800 and is non-paid. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publishes this periodical.

Articles from March

Are We Importing Inflation?
Headline and core price indexes recently have been rising at a disconcertingly fast pace, reflecting the direct and secondary pass-through effects of record oil prices, rapidly rising agricultural prices, and the dollar's depreciation. Some observers,...
Business Loan Markets
[GRAPHICS OMITTED] The Federal Reserve Board's January 2008 survey of senior loan officers (covering the months of October 2007 through December 2007) found considerable tightening of credit standards for commercial and industrial loans since the...
Fourth District Employment Conditions
[GRAPHIC OMITTED] The district's unemployment rate jumped 0.5 percent to 5.7 percent for the month of December. The increase in the unemployment rate can be attributed to an increase in the number of people unemployed (10.4 percent), as well as...
Home Price Indexes
[GRAPHICS OMITTED] According to most major measures, home prices are declining--and if market commentators are right, prices may continue to fall in tile near future. This decline may be hard to stomach for recent home buyers, home sellers, or those...
Housing Doldrums
[GRAPHICS OMITTED] The deterioration in the housing market shows no sign of abating. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index registered a 9 percent year-over-year drop in the final quarter of 2007, the sharpest decline in its 21-year history....
January Price Statistics
[GRAPHIC OMITTED] The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent in January, following a 4.4 percent increase in December, outpacing its 6-month, 12-month, and 5-year trends. The usual suspects (energy and food) contributed...
Labor Force Participation in the United States and Ohio
[GRAPHICS OMITTED] A key determinant of the size of the labor force is the labor force participation rate. The labor force participation rate is the fraction of the working age population (16-year olds and up) that is currently employed or actively...
Patent Trends in the Fourth District
[GRAPHIC OMITTED] Education and innovation contributed more to income growth at the state level than other potential factors, according to research conducted at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Educational attainment, for example, increased...
Preliminary Employment Data Might Miss a Recession Onset
[GRAPHICS OMITTED] As we move further into 2008, concerns are growing about the U.S. economy heading toward recession. The Employment Situation reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have received a lot of attention in recent months,...
Real GDP 2007: Fourth-Quarter Preliminary Estimate
[GRAPHIC OMITTED] Real GDP remained unchanged from the advance estimate, growing at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Downward revisions to private investment and personal consumption were balanced by a positive improvement...
The Employment Situation
[GRAPHIC OMITTED] Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 63,000 in February, coming in below expectations of a 25,000 gain. January's loss (initially 17,000) was revised downward to a loss of 22,000. Payroll declines were last seen in August 2003,...
What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
[GRAPHIC OMITTED] Since last month, the yield curve has gotten steeper, with long-term interest rates rising and short-term interest rates falling. One reason for noting this is that the slope of the yield curve has achieved some notoriety as a...
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