Demographic Research

Articles

Vol. 41, July-December

Economic Rationales for Kin Marriage: Assessing the Evidence Using Egyptian Panel Data
1.IntroductionThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is exceptional among world regions in its high rates of marriage between close relatives (Reilly 2013). Conjugal unions between cousins and other relatives have historically been the preferred form...
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Separation, Divorce, and Housing Tenure: A Cross-Country Comparison
1.BackgroundAccess to homeownership is one of the key dimensions of inequality in industrialised countries (Dewilde 2008); those who become homeowners will benefit in the long run whereas those who cannot afford homeownership will likely be disadvantaged....
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Living Arrangement Dynamics of Older Adults in Mexico: Latent Class Analysis in an Accelerated Longitudinal Design
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionHigh-income economies have developed social security, pension, and public health systems to provide care and support to older adults. Conversely, in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) there...
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Subnational Population Forecasts: Do Users Want to Know about Uncertainty?
1.IntroductionSubnational population forecasts are used by governments and the business sector for a variety of purposes, including service delivery, infrastructure requirements, workforce planning, site selection, and market assessments. They inform...
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Geofaceting: Aligning Small Multiples for Regions in a Spatially Meaningful Way
1.IntroductionIn data visualization, it is often challenging to represent multiple relevant dimensions while preserving the readability of a plot. This is especially true when the task is to expose spatial variation of some complex phenomenon. In such...
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Impacts of Education and Immigration on the Size and Skills of the Future Workforce
1.IntroductionIn most developed countries, current immigration has reached historical levels. population growth is now mainly fuelled by immigration (Wilson et al. 2013). In the context of population ageing, where a growing number of people are about...
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The Impact of the Choice of Life Table Statistics When Forecasting Mortality
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionLife expectancy forecasts underpin social, economic, and medical decisions as well as individuals' choices, for example, about savings and retirement. Accurate mortality forecasts are crucial, but...
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Housework Share and Fertility Preference in Four East Asian Countries in 2006 and 2012
1.Special issue overviewThis special issue is comprised of five papers focused on family trends and domestic division of labour in four East Asian countries: China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In a comparative paper analysing the association between...
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Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionHuman migration is an important demographic, economic, environmental, geopolitical, and sociocultural process (Black et al. 2011; Bodvarsson and Van den Berg 2013; Brettell and Hollifield 2015; Castles,...
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Childlessness, Sex Composition of Children, and Divorce Risks in China
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)Abstract1. IntroductionThe link between children and the risk of divorce has been well studied in the Western context, but less so in other settings. Existing studies on the associations between children...
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Editorial: P-Values, Theory, Replicability, and Rigour
1. IntroductionThe last few years have witnessed a lively discussion questioning the rigour of a lot of empirical research that relies on the application of statistical methods, especially in the social sciences. Doubts have spread about the reproducibility...
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Introduction to the Special Collection on Spatial Mobility, Family Dynamics, and Gender Relations
1. IntroductionThe aim of this special collection (SC) is to highlight the importance of and expand our knowledge on the interplay between spatial mobility, family life courses and contexts, and gender relations.3 Growing research evidence suggests that,...
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Capturing Trends in Canadian Divorce in an Era without Vital Statistics
1.IntroductionMeasures of marriage and divorce are key indicators of formal unions, which are also important for understanding the family context where most fertility takes place, as well as wealth accumulation, housing, and caregiving. Vital statistics...
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Mortality Convergence of Twins and Singletons in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.IntroductionTwin-singleton mortality differences in early ages are an important source of child inequality in all societies. Owing to the unfavorable fetal conditions of twins resulting in growth retardation and low birth weight, their risk of death...
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Mortality Shifts and Mortality Compression in Period and Cohort Life Tables
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionMortality trends in a certain country are often characterized using the development of the life expectancy (LE) at birth over time. For a given year, the period LE reflects the expected life length...
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Smooth Constrained Mortality Forecasting
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionMortality modeling and forecasting are crucial in epidemiology and population studies, as well as in the insurance and pensions industries. In recent decades, several methodologies have been proposed,...
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Investigating China's Inter-Prefecture Migration from a Place Attractivity Perspective, Its Spatial Patterns, and Demographic Characteristics
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionMaintaining orderly migration in China has been regarded as "a significant strategic choice for realizing China's modernizations" (Li 2012) and a new engine to boost China's socioeconomic development...
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Parental Childcare Support, Sibship Status, and Mothers' Second-Child Plans in Urban China
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionThere is a large body of literature portraying how siblings interact and exert their influences on one another's development and adjustment during childhood. Although early research suggests that...
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The Relation between Cardiovascular Mortality and Development: A Study of Small Areas in Brazil, 2001-2015
1.IntroductionDeaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are increasing and CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide; that is, more people die annually from CVDs than from any other cause (Franco et al. 2011; Lozano et al. 2012; Roth et al. 2015, 2017a,...
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Maternal Educational Attainment and Infant Mortality in the United States: Does the Gradient Vary by Race/ethnicity and Nativity?
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionA large literature documents that maternal education is positively associated with favorable infant health, including lower rates of low birth weight, preterm birth, and infant mortality (Chou et...
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An Exploration of Differences in Ideal Family Size between Muslim and Non-Muslim Women in France
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionAlthough Muslim women have higher birth rates than women of other backgrounds in contemporary France (Toulemon 2004; Westoff and Frejka 2007), there are widespread misconceptions about Muslim fertility...
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The Role of Education and Educational-Occupational Mismatches in Decisions regarding Commuting and Interregional Migration from Eastern to Western Germany
1.IntroductionThis paper examines the role of education and educational-occupational mismatch in men's and women's job-related mobility from eastern to western Germany, including both interregional migration and commuting.Even though previous research...
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Does the Association between Children and Happiness Vary by Level of Religiosity? the Evidence from Israel
1.IntroductionThere is a widespread belief that parenthood makes people happier (Hansen 2012; Kohler and Mencarini 2016). However, research has shown mixed results on the association between happiness and fertility, finding evidence for both positive...
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Homeownership after Separation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Finnish Register Data
1.IntroductionIn the past few decades, European countries have experienced significant changes in partnership dynamics and patterns. Young adults increasingly postpone or forgo marriage and live in nonmarital cohabitation instead. Separation, divorce,...
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Educational and Age Assortative Mating in China: The Importance of Marriage Order
1.IntroductionAssortative mating, the question of 'who marries whom,' has important implications for the production and reproduction of social inequality (Schwartz 2013). Despite the decline of first marriage and the rise of remarriage in many countries...
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The Age Difference between Spouses and Reproduction in 19th Century Sweden
1.IntroductionThe question of whether female autonomy within marriage is related to fertility outcomes is addressed in a growing body of empirical research, most of which focuses on contemporary high fertility populations such as sub-Saharan African...
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APC Curvature Plots: Displaying Nonlinear Age-Period-Cohort Pattern on Lexis Plots
1. IntroductionIt has long been recognized that populations change along the three dimensions of age, period (typically calendar year), and cohort (typically year of birth) (Caselli and Vallin 2005; Keiding 2011). The question of whether it is possible...
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How Reducing Differentials in Education and Labor Force Participation Could Lessen Workforce Decline in the EU-28
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionFollowing several decades of low fertility levels, in many European countries the working-age population (generally defined as those aged between 15 and 64) is or will soon be shrinking, while the...
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Union Dissolution and Housing Trajectories in Britain
1.IntroductionSince the 1960s, divorce rates have increased in all industrialized countries (Thomson 2014). In England and Wales the number of divorces increased from 24,000 in 1960 to 111,000 in 2014 (Office for National Statistics 2016). Additionally,...
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Introduction to the Special Collection on 'Children and Family Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa'
1. IntroductionWhy focus research on children and families in Africa?Changes in attitudes towards children are a dimension of the demographic transition that has been extensively covered in the West but is under-researched in Africa. Yet current local...
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When Richer Doesn't Mean Thinner: Ethnicity, Socioeconomic Position, and the Risk of Child Obesity in the United Kingdom
1. BackgroundIn the United Kingdom over the last two decades, overweight and obesity (hereafter referred to as overweight/obese) have become increasingly common in children. Amongst a cohort of UK children born around the year 2001, 20% were categorized...
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The Formal Demography of Kinship: A Matrix Formulation
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionBirth and death are universals of demography. Every individual, without exception, will eventually die. Every individual, without exception, was born and most individuals will have the experience...
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The Limits to Cumulative Causation Revisited: Urban-Origin Mexico-US Migration in an Era of Increased Immigration Restrictions
1. IntroductionOne of the most influential theories that have been developed to explain the persistence of international migration flows is cumulative causation (Massey et al. 1993; Morawska 2007; de Haas 2010). According to this theory, migration is...
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The Role of Conflict and Organized Violence in International Forced Migration
1.IntroductionBoth the number of internally and internationally displaced people and the volume of new asylum applications have increased in recent years as a result of intensifying violent conflicts since 2010. According to the Office of the United...
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Civilian Killings and Disappearances during Civil War in El Salvador (1980-1992)
1. IntroductionThe civil war in El Salvador ended over a quarter century ago, but the total mortality due to violence is still unknown. Reasonable educated guesses about the total magnitude of violent death hover around 75,000 (see, e.g., Betancur, Figueredo...
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The Threshold Age of the Lifetable Entropy
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.RelationshipThe lifetable entropy is a dimensionless indicator of the relative variation in the length of life compared to life expectancy at birth (Leser 1955; Keyfitz 1968, 1977; Demetrius 1974, 1978). It...
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On the Multifaceted Impact of Migration on the Fertility of Receiving Countries: Methodological Insights and Contemporary Evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionThe impact of migration on a population's size and age composition is well understood (e.g., Alho 2008; Espenshade 1986, 1994; Murphy 2016). Among the related questions that have been less explored...
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Is the Age Difference between Partners Related to Women's Earnings?
1.IntroductionThe gender gap in income is large and persists throughout the life course. In the 28 countries of the European Union in 2014, the average gender wage gap (the difference between the average gross hourly earnings of male and of female paid...
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Intergenerational Coresidence and the Subjective Well-Being of Older Adults in China: The Moderating Effect of Living Arrangement Preference and Intergenerational Contact
1. IntroductionThe link between intergenerational coresidence and older adults' well-being has been studied extensively in the social science literature (Hays 2002). Although relations between parents and coresidential children can produce tension and...
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Editorial: The Past, Present, and Future of Demographic Research
1998-1999: Getting started, looking aheadGriffith Feeney (editor, 1999)Jim Vaupel told me of his ideas for a new online journal shortly after he was appointed Founding Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in 1996. I had...
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Earning Their Keep? Fostering, Children's Education, and Work in North-Western Tanzania
1.BackgroundFostering, i.e., permanently or temporarily raising children that are not one's biological children, is common in many societies worldwide (Silk 1980; Scelza and Silk 2014). Across 40 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 8.6% of children aged...
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A Spatial Dynamic Panel Approach to Modelling the Space-Time Dynamics of Interprovincial Migration Flows in China
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionIn recent times, migration has played an increasingly prominent role in shaping regional population growth, socioeconomic transition, and regional resilience (Bijak 2011; White 2016; Biagi et al....
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How Marriages Based on Bride Capture Differ: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
1.IntroductionAccording to ethnographic reports, many women were captured for marriage in societies across Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and the Americas in the past (Ayres 1974; Barnes 1999). In many places, this so-called bride capture no longer...
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A Framework for the Prospective Analysis of Ethno-Cultural Super-Diversity
1.IntroductionIn what Coleman (2006) terms the "Third Demographic Transition," immigration has led to rapid increases in cultural, ethnic, and religious diversity in many high-income, low-fertility countries. This rise in 'super-diversity' (Vertovec...
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Vol. 40, January-June

Race/ethnic Inequalities in Early Adolescent Development in the United Kingdom and United States
1. IntroductionA burgeoning line of comparative research examining race/ethnic inequalities in children's health in the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) has confirmed that, across national settings, racial/ethnic minority status is associated...
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A New Look at the Housing Antecedents of Separation
1.IntroductionThe demographic restructuring of Western societies in recent decades has been accompanied by transformations in housing systems (Graham and Sabater 2015). In Britain, increased separation and divorce rates since the 1960s3 have had particularly...
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Comparing Same- and Different-Sex Relationship Dynamics: Experiences of Young Adults in Taiwan
1.IntroductionDemographers have long been interested in the diversity of family forms (Biblarz and Savci 2010; Cherlin 2004). With the increasing visibility of same-sex unions, an emerging literature has been focusing on the similarities and differences...
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The Residential Segregation of the American Indian and Alaska Native Population in US Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas, 2010
1.IntroductionA rich vein of research in demography, sociology, and related fields has focused on the measurement, causes, and consequences of racial/ethnic residential segregation. Little of this research, however, has focused on the American Indian...
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Gender Differences in Willingness to Move for Interregional Job Offers
1.IntroductionRegional mobility is an important mechanism of labor market mobility. As jobs are most likely to be generated in regions with dense populations and because jobs are scarce (especially for specialized employees), obtaining a better job often...
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Longitudinal Employment Trajectories and Health in Middle Life: Insights from Linked Administrative and Survey Data
1.IntroductionA vast literature shows that health is unevenly distributed across social groups (Friel and Marmot 2011; Marmot 2015), noting the association between employment status and individual health and wellbeing (Benach and Muntaner 2013; Cai 2010)....
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Gender-Specific Effects of Commuting and Relocation on a Couple's Social Life
1. IntroductionMost previous research on geographical mobility in the partnership and household context focuses largely on gender differences in determinants and outcomes of regional mobility with respect to labor market outcomes and economic success....
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IRS County-to-County Migration Data, 1990–2010
1.IntroductionMigration flow data (i.e., the number of migrants from location i to location j) is information that is typically difficult to obtain despite its importance (Willekens et al. 2016; Rogers, Little, and Raymer 2010). Migration scholars typically...
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Job Insecurity and Parental Well-Being: The Role of Parenthood and Family Factors
1.IntroductionSince the 1970s, economic recession has fueled unemployment rates and people's fear of losing their jobs. This insecurity has been reflected in quality of life estimates that show its impact on a large portion of the working population...
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Blood Is Thicker Than Bloodshed: A Genealogical Approach to Reconstruct Populations after Armed Conflicts
1.IntroductionOur understanding of the demographic consequences of conflict has been constrained by the available data. It is usually not a priority to collect demographic data in the context of armed conflicts using traditional methods such as household...
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Age at First Birth and Subsequent Fertility: The Case of Adolescent Mothers in France and England and Wales
1.IntroductionAdolescent mothers constitute a rare population with these youngest of first-time mothers distinguishing themselves more and more from women who enter into motherhood at a later age. If studies upon adolescent childbearing are numerous,...
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Happy Parents' Tweets: An Exploration of Italian Twitter Data Using Sentiment Analysis
1.IntroductionRapid increases in computational power and storage capabilities (Hilbert and López 2011) have radically transformed human communications and societies (Castells 2000). The massive dissemination of information heralds a new era in social...
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The Association between Neonatal Death and Facility Birth in Regions of India
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionThe United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 aims to reduce global neonatal mortality (NNM) to 12 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Reducing NNM in India is critical to achieving this goal...
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The Impact of Parental Death on the Timing of First Marriage: Evolutionary versus Social Explanations (the Netherlands, 1850-1940)
CONTRIBUTIONMarriage in the period 1850-1940 was strongly determined by regional, cultural, religious, and financial constraints. The proposed evolutionary explanations, and the one based on life history theory in particular, are therefore not able to...
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Lung Cancer Mortality in Historical Context: How Stable Are Spatial Patterns of Smoking over Time?
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionIn 2014, 23,200 new deaths due to lung cancer were registered in Poland, which is nearly twice as many as in 1980. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and better understand spatial distribution...
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Identifying Interaction Effects Using Random Fertility Shocks
1. IntroductionOne individual's fertility behavior may affect that of others, and when friends and family have children, one's own preferences and knowledge regarding life with children may change. These interaction effects are typically expected to...
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The Weight of School Entry: Weight Gain among Hispanic Children of Immigrants during the Early Elementary School Years
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionCurrently, one in four children in the United States is Hispanic, and the majority of these children have at least one parent who is an immigrant (Fry and Passel 2009). It has been well documented...
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The Effects of Household and Community Context on Mortality among Children under Five in Sierra Leone: Evidence from the 2013 Demographic and Health Survey
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionThe 2015 Millennium Development Goals report showed global declines in under-five mortality rates by more than half during 1990-2015, from 90 deaths to 43 deaths per 1000 live births (United Nations...
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The Gendered Division of Labor and Its Perceived Fairness: Implications for Childbearing in Germany
1.IntroductionA number of recent studies have asserted that there are close links between gender equality in the family and childbearing. Authors of these studies have observed that societies in which women's increasing labor force participation has...
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Parental Leave Policies and Continued Childbearing in Iceland, Norway, and Sweden
1.IntroductionMany scholars have investigated the relationship between gender equality and fertility trends at the macro level (see for example McDonald 2000; Neyer 2003; Goldscheider, Bernhardt, and Lappegård 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015; Esping-Andersen...
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The Changing Pattern of Cohabitation: A Sequence Analysis Approach
1.IntroductionThat the prevalence of nonmarital cohabitation has increased during the last thirty years is one of the most striking aspects of wider social changes that have taken place throughout the industrialised world. According to Prinz (1995),...
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Deaths and Survivors in War: The Italian Soldiers in WWI
1.IntroductionEpidemics, famines, wars: Every population has been faced with these three dramatic events throughout its history. Despite their intensity, frequency, and overall range, the risk of dying in those terrible circumstances was not uniform...
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Stability and Change in Family Time Transfers and Workload Inequality in Italian Couples
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionUnpaid time for household production and servicing represents a relevant contribution of families and especially of women to welfare. A large body of time use literature has shown the existence...
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Taking Birth Year into Account When Analysing Effects of Maternal Age on Child Health and Other Outcomes: The Value of a Multilevel-Multiprocess Model Compared to a Sibling Model
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.Introduction1.1Effects of maternal age on child healthThere is a large literature on how maternal age is linked to child health, and the pattern is rather complex. On the one hand, studies have shown high child...
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Improving Age Measurement in Low- and Middle-Income Countries through Computer Vision: A Test in Senegal
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)Abstract1. IntroductionThe age of individuals is a key input in the calculation of demographic indicators. It is also often included as a control variable in multivariate analyses of various outcomes of interest....
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Adult Mortality among Second-Generation Immigrants in France: Results from a Nationally Representative Record Linkage Study
1.IntroductionThe native-born children of immigrants, also called second-generation immigrants, constitute a growing and increasingly diverse population in many countries of the European Union. In the EU as a whole, the population of second-generation...
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Migrant Health Convergence and the Role of Material Deprivation
1.IntroductionHealth is a key dimension of the migrant integration process, but research on migrant health or strategies for monitoring and managing the health consequences of migration in Europe remains sparse (Rechel, Mladovsky, and Devillé 2012; WHO...
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The Healthy Immigrant Effect: The Role of Educational Selectivity in the Good Health of Migrants
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe Healthy Immigrant Effect (HIE) posits that recent migrants are in better health than the host population and other migrants who have lived in the host country for a long time (Domnich et al....
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Stable Cohabitational Unions Increase Quality of Life: Retrospective Analysis of Partnership Histories Also Reveals Gender Differences
CONCLUSIONSIn line with the theory of cumulative (dis)advantages, the benefits of stable cohabitations were shown to accumulate over time for both genders. The differences found between men and women are convincing in light of research on unequal gender...
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Impact of Delayed Effects on Human Old-Age Mortality
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionIn the last decade or so, research guided by the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) paradigm and related theories has grown rapidly (Bateson and Gluckman 2011; Gluckman and Hanson...
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Incidence of First-Marriage Divorce among Women in the 1979 Panel of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth
1.IntroductionAnalyses of divorce based on period data indicate that the prevalence of divorce in the United States rose until the early 1980s, then reached a plateau of around 44%, where it has remained (Goldstein 1999; Raley and Bumpass 2003). For...
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The Educational Gradient of Living Alone: A Comparison among the Working-Age Population in Europe
1.IntroductionThis paper focuses on the association between education and living as a one-person household in the working-age (30-64 years) population in Europe. Previous research has mainly focused on the living arrangements among the elderly population...
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Does Moving for Family Nest-Building Inhibit Mothers' Labour Force (Re-)Entry?
1. IntroductionA number of influential factors for mothers' labour force re-entry at various levels of inquiry have been identified, but it is rarely questioned in what ways the birth of a child impacts the multiple life domains of family members. There...
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Weak Support for a U-Shaped Pattern between Societal Gender Equality and Fertility When Comparing Societies across Time
1. IntroductionSeveral recent theories in demography suggest that while initially societies that have more gender equality also have falling fertility levels, but that at higher levels of fertility this relationship reverses. The relationship between...
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Family Arrangements and Children's Educational Outcomes: Heterogeneous Penalties in Upper-Secondary School
1. IntroductionWestern societies have been involved in huge demographic changes and the analysis of the social consequences of new family arrangements (hereafter FAs) is therefore a cutting-edge topic of research in social science. This work studies...
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Costa Rican Mortality 1950-2013: An Evaluation of Data Quality and Trends Compared with Other Countries
1.IntroductionCosta Ricans are among the longest-lived people in Latin America. Based on the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) estimates for 2010-2015, life expectancy at birth (e0, both sexes combined) in Costa Rica was 79.2 years, far higher...
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Distinguishing Tempo and Ageing Effects in Migration
1.IntroductionSince the 1980s levels of internal migration have declined continuously in many advanced economies, including the United States, which in 2013 recorded its lowest internal migration intensity since 1945 and the longest period of continuous...
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The Living Arrangements of Moroccans in Spain: Generation and Time
1. IntroductionAmong the various migrant communities residing in Europe, Moroccans are now one of the largest and most geographically dispersed (de Haas 2014). Over three million people of Moroccan descent currently reside in Europe (ibid.). Early Moroccan...
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A Decade of Life-Course Research on Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe
1.IntroductionImmigrant fertility emerged as an important research topic in Europe at the end of the 20th century due to growing shares of immigrants and their descendants. Hence, the heterogeneity of the Western European populations has increased with...
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Housing Consequences of Divorce and Separation in a 'Super Home Ownership' Regime: The Case of Hungary
1. IntroductionThe past few decades have witnessed rising divorce rates, the growing popularity of unmarried cohabitation, and increasingly fragile partnerships in many developed countries. In this context, what happens after union dissolution has attracted...
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Variations in Migration Motives over Distance
Descriptive Finding1. IntroductionConceptually, internal migration differs from residential mobility in necessitating a complete change in "daily activity space" (Roseman 1971): leaving behind one's community, workplace, school district, housing market,...
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Changes in Seasonality of Births in Poland in the Years 1900–2009
1.IntroductionResearch carried out to date clearly shows that seasonal birth fluctuations occur in all studied populations; however, they differ depending on the geographical location and country, and they also change over time (Cowgill 1966a, 1966b;...
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Ambient Temperature and Sexual Activity: Evidence from Time Use Surveys
1.IntroductionPast research has shown that extremely or unusually hot temperatures in a given month reduce birth rates eight to ten months later (Barreca, Deschenes, and Guldi 2018; Becker 1991; Lam and Miron 1991, 1996; Seiver 1989). Since the frequency...
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Combining Population Projections with Quasi-Likelihood Models: A New Way to Predict Cancer Incidence and Cancer Mortality in Austria Up to 2030
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionHealth planners rely on cancer predictions to optimize allocation of limited resources for primary prevention, screening, treatment, rehabilitation, and palliative care. The most common types of...
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A New Family Equilibrium? Changing Dynamics between the Gender Division of Labor and Fertility in Great Britain, 1991-2017
1.IntroductionThe reversed relationship between female labor force participation rates and fertility levels has ignited a heated debate about the changing equilibrium between gender inequality and family formation. Between the 1960s and the mid-1990s,...
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Running out of Time? Understanding the Consequences of the Biological Clock for the Dynamics of Fertility Intentions and Union Formation
1. IntroductionIn many Western European countries the proportion of first births to women aged over 35 has been growing since the 1960s (Prioux 2005). At the same time, a considerable proportion of childless women in their late thirties or early forties...
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'Will the One Who Keeps the Children Keep the House?' Residential Mobility after Divorce by Parenthood Status and Custody Arrangements in France
1.IntroductionDivorce has become a common life event that affects an ever-increasing share of the population in most developed countries. The stigma previously associated with divorce is less pronounced (Wolfinger 1999; Lyngstad and Jalovaara 2010) and...
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Persistent Joblessness and Fertility Intentions
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionGrowing uncertainty has become an intrinsic characteristic of contemporary globalised societies. This is the result of deregulation, internationalisation, and delocalisation (Blossfeld, Mills, and...
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Who Leaves, Who Stays? Gendered Routes out of the Family Home Following Union Dissolution in Italy
1.IntroductionFamily formation in Italy has long been characterised by a traditional model of lifelong (religious) marriages. However, in recent decades new family behaviours, typically associated with the Second Demographic Transition (Lesthaeghe and...
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Vol. 39, July-December

Prospective versus Retrospective Measurement of Unwanted Fertility: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Inconsistencies Assessed for a Cohort of US Women
1.IntroductionUnwanted fertility - births that occur when women preferred to have no more children - is an important demographic concept. Unwanted fertility reflects contraceptive failure or nonuse of contraception when there was a desire to have no...
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Persistence of Death in the United States: The Remarkably Different Mortality Patterns between America's Heartland and Dixieland
1.Introduction and backgroundRecent public health research documents geographic disparities in mortality in the United States. This literature takes many different forms, particularly regarding the way 'place' is conceptualized, operationalized, and...
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Religiosity and Marital Fertility among Muslims in Israel
1.IntroductionMounting evidence suggests that there is a positive relationship been religiosity and fertility. Most of the evidence comes from studies of Christian and Jewish populations (Adsera 2006; Baudin 2015; Hayford and Morgan 2008; Mosher and...
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Gender Differences and Similarities in the Educational Gradient in Fertility: The Role of Earnings Potential and Gender Composition in Study Disciplines
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionIn many Western and non-Western countries, in recent decades the number of highly educated women reaching reproductive ages has exceeded the number of highly educated men (Esteve, García-Román, and...
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The Influence of the Number of Siblings on Expected Family Size in a Cohort of Young Adults in Germany
1. IntroductionThere is a long tradition of research on the association between family of origin and fertility (Axinn, Clarkberg, and Thornton 1994; Barber 2000; Huinink 1987; Kolk 2014a, 2014b; Michael and Tuma 1985; Murphy 2013; Murphy and Wang 2001;...
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Multigenerational Socioeconomic Attainments and Mortality among Older Men: An Adjacent Generations Approach
1.IntroductionRecent papers in stratification and demography argue for the relevance of multiple familial generations in both status attainment and health processes (Friedman and Mare 2014; Mare 2011, 2014). In response, a growing body of research provides...
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Urban–rural Disparities in Adult Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.IntroductionEmpirical evidence from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) consistently shows an urban mortality advantage. Mortality levels in cities appear substantially lower than those found in rural areas (Akoto and Tambashe 2002; Bocquier, Madise, and Zulu...
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Fertility Compression in Niger: A Study of Fertility Change by Parity (1977–2011)
1.IntroductionWith an average of 7.4 children per woman in 2010-2015, Niger is the country with the highest level of fertility in the world (UNPD 2017). The level of fertility remained stable over the last decades. Given the importance of fertility in...
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Life Lived and Left: Estimating Age-Specific Survival in Stable Populations with Unknown Ages
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. RelationshipConsider a stable population with constant growth rate r that is first observed at time t. Let N (a, t) be the unknown number of individuals in this population at any age a. Let D (a, t) be the...
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Parents' Subjective Well-Being after Their First Child and Declining Fertility Expectations
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionRecent studies have suggested a significant decline in subjective well-being - measured either as happiness or as life satisfaction - following childbearing events (Clark et al. 2008; Frijters, Johnston,...
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Joint Lifestyles and the Risk of Union Dissolution: Differences between Marriage and Cohabitation
1.IntroductionLove, intimacy, and companionship are considered central benefits of contemporary couple relationships (Spitze and South 1985; Giddens 1992; Cherlin 2004). The way couples arrange their social life and leisure time, such as sports activities...
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When Working Isn't Enough: Family Demographic Processes and In-Work Poverty across the Life Course in the United States
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionIn-work poverty is exceptionally high in the United States compared to most European countries despite a pervasive work-based anti-poverty strategy that was implemented in the early 1990s (Lichter...
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Economic Uncertainty and First-Birth Intentions in Europe
1.IntroductionEurope is facing a demographic challenge, as pointed out in contemporary scholarship of the welfare state, gender, economics, and demography (Oláh and Fahlén 2013). Below-replacement level period fertility rates, displayed in nearly all...
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Same-Sex Relationship Experiences and Expectations regarding Partnership and Parenthood
1.IntroductionThe beginning of the 21st century brought a rapid expansion of social science studies on gay and lesbian (henceforth: G&L) family issues (for reviews see Biblarz and Savci 2010; Moore and Stambolis-Ruhstorfer 2013; Umberson et al. 2015)....
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Polygynous Marriage and Child Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Is the Evidence for Harm?
1.IntroductionThere is now a significant body of research, spanning the social and health sciences, on the relationship between polygynous marriage (hereafter polygyny) and child health in sub-Saharan Africa (hereafter Africa). Negative associations...
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Fewer Mothers with More Colleges? the Impacts of Expansion in Higher Education on First Marriage and First Childbirth
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionSince the instances of lowest-low fertility were first observed in Europe in the early 1990s and the term 'lowest-low fertility' was coined (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002), researchers have explored...
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Fertility Responses to Individual and Contextual Unemployment: Differences by Socioeconomic Background
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1.IntroductionResearch on life course transitions has long emphasized the impact of economic prospects on the decision to bear children (Becker 1960; Easterlin 1973). Because drastic changes in macroeconomic conditions,...
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Disability Crossover: Is There a Hispanic Immigrant Health Advantage That Reverses from Working to Old Age?
1.IntroductionThe Hispanic population in the United States continues to grow rapidly, and its share in the population over age 65 is expected to more than double between 2012 and 2050, from just over 7% to over 18% (15.4 million people). Hispanics tend...
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Leaving Home in 19th Century England and Wales: A Spatial Analysis
1.IntroductionThe process of leaving the parental home is an important but understudied phenomenon that can tell us much about the structure of societies, both past and present. Although Pooley and Turnbull are keen to stress that in the past leaving...
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Immigrant Women and Medicaid-Financed Births
1.IntroductionAnti-immigrant sentiments have been rising in many areas in the United States. President Donald Trump, during his campaign for president in 2015 and 2016, gained popularity partly due to his anti-immigration rhetoric (Lee 2015). Aside from...
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Neonatal Mortality, Cold Weather, and Socioeconomic Status in Two Northern Italian Rural Parishes, 1820–1900
1.IntroductionCold-related conditions, such as hypothermia (Lunze et al. 2013), and severe infectious diseases, such as neonatal sepsis or neonatal infection (Oza et al. 2015), are a common cause of neonatal death in many developing countries (Lawn,...
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Educational Selectivity of Internal Migrants: A Global Assessment
1.IntroductionMigration is widely acknowledged to be integral to the process of human development. At an individual level, migration is essential to economic and social well-being by allowing individuals to pursue their goals and aspirations, including...
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Cause-Specific Mortality as a Sentinel Indicator of Current Socioeconomic Conditions in Italy
1.IntroductionThe last few years have seen an increasing need for disaggregated statistics at small territorial levels that can monitor the social and economic conditions of the various areas of a country and highlight possible regional imbalances. The...
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Celebrity Culture and Demographic Change: The Case of Celebrity Nonmarital Fertility, 1974–2014
1.Introduction1.1Explaining rising nonmarital fertilityIn 1940, 3.8% of US births occurred to unmarried women. By 2009 this figure had risen over ten-fold to 40.8% (Solomon-Fears 2014). National surveys confirm marked shifts in attitudes towards nonmarital...
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Using Census Data to Measure Maternal Mortality: A Review of Recent Experience
1. BackgroundThe first target of Goal Three of the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 2015 (United Nations 2015) is to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000...
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Love. Break Up. Repeat: The Prevalence and Stability of Serial Cohabitation among West German Women and Men Born in the Early 1970s
1.IntroductionUnmarried cohabitation is part and parcel of Europe's demographic landscape. A growing proportion of people postpone marriage because they choose to cohabit before marrying their partner, and some forgo marriage altogether. Increasingly,...
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Stability and Change in Personal Fertility Ideals among US Women in Heterosexual Relationships
1. IntroductionNearly four decades after reliable, affordable, and accessible birth control and legal abortion became available, the persistence of unrealized fertility ideals raises practical and theoretical questions about individual, cultural, social,...
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From Hell to Heaven? Evidence of Migration Trajectories from an Italian Refugee Centre
1.IntroductionDue to the many war and conflict situations worldwide, a growing number of people are leaving their home country to look for better living conditions, free from persecution, violence, or war. According to the most recent data (Caritas 2015;...
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WhatsApp Usage Patterns and Prediction of Demographic Characteristics without Access to Message Content
1.IntroductionSocial networks on the Internet have become ubiquitous applications, allowing people to easily share text, pictures, and audio and video files. Popular networks include Facebook, Reddit, and LinkedIn, all of which maintain websites that...
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The Role of Education in the Intersection of Partnership Transitions and Motherhood in Europe and the United States
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionPrior research has found that in many countries throughout Europe and the United States the partnership context of first childbearing varies by level of education. The less educated are more likely...
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The Impact of Proportional Changes in Age-Specific Mortality on Life Expectancy When Mortality Is a Log-Linear Function of Age
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.RelationshipAssume that lifetime from a given age, a, follows a Gompertz distribution whose agespecific death rate is defined as m(x) = aeß(x-a) at age x > a and let ? = aß-1.Consider a proportional change...
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Mixed Marriages between Immigrants and Natives in Spain: The Gendered Effect of Marriage Market Constraints
1.IntroductionAlthough a number of important studies have looked at mixed marriages between communities who have lived in the same country for centuries (Hendrickx, Lammers, and Ultee 1991; O'Leary and Finnäs 2002; Kalmijn and van Tubergen 2006), it...
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Family Policies, Childbearing, and Economic Crisis: The Case of Iceland
1.IntroductionIn a European context, Iceland has relatively high fertility. It is also among the most gender-equal countries in the world; few countries have a higher female employment rate than Iceland. With its population of around 350,000, Iceland...
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Return Intentions over the Life Course: Evidence on the Effects of Life Events from a Longitudinal Sample of First- and Second-Generation Turkish Migrants in Germany
1.IntroductionTurkish migration to Germany is one of the major migrations of the last 60 years. According to the 2014 German microcensus, of the five million people with Turkish background living abroad, nearly three million reside in Germany (Aydin...
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Contemporary Female Migration in Ghana: Analyses of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionDue to population growth and urbanization, projections suggest that two-thirds of the world's population will reside in urban areas by 2050, with most of this increase occurring in Asia and Africa...
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Family Histories and the Demography of Grandparenthood
1.IntroductionIn contemporary aging societies, grandparents' lives and those of their grandchildren overlap markedly (Bengtson 2001; Harper 2005; Leopold and Skopek 2015a; Margolis 2016). As a consequence of changes in mortality, compared to the earlier...
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Housework Division and Gender Ideology: When Do Attitudes Really Matter?
1.IntroductionThe relationship between gender attitudes and housework division has been extensively investigated in recent decades. However, impressive as this research effort has been, further scrutiny is needed: The literature shows that these attitudes...
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Order Matters: The Effect of Premarital Pregnancy on Second Childbearing in Japan
1.IntroductionIn the past, marriage and childbearing have been strongly linked. From the middle of the 20th century, however, family formation has changed in many developed countries: As cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing has increased the order...
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Birth and Employment Transitions of Women in Turkey: The Emergence of Role Incompatibility
1.IntroductionThe relationship between women's fertility and employment is a topic that requires further clarification, especially in developing countries where fertility is still in transition. The extensive literature on this relationship deals mostly...
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Child Poverty across Immigrant Generations in the United States, 1993–2016: Evidence Using the Official and Supplemental Poverty Measures
1.IntroductionRacial and ethnic diversity across the US population has increased markedly over recent decades, and this trend is expected to continue into the future (Alba and Foner 2015; Frey 2014; Lee et al. 2017; Lichter and Qian 2018). Shifts in...
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Higher Acceptance Rates of Asylum Seekers Lead to Slightly More Asylum Applications in the Future
1.IntroductionImmigration to Europe has been the main concern for Europeans for several years. When asked about the most important issues facing the European Union (EU), immigration has been mentioned more often than any other issue in all Eurobarometer...
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Putting Family Centre Stage: Ties to Nonresident Family, Internal Migration, and Immobility
1.IntroductionInternal migration - long-distance changes of address within national borders - is a key way for people to improve their living conditions, and is thus generally assumed to be beneficial to individuals and households. It is also seen as...
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Does Age-Adjusted Measurement of Contraceptive Use Better Explain the Relationship between Fertility and Contraception?
1.BackgroundContraceptive use is one of the major proximate determinants of fertility, along with marriage (or union formation), postpartum insusceptibility, and abortion (Bongaarts 1982). The proximate determinants model has been refined over time (Bongaarts...
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Vol. 38, January-June

The Digital Divide and Body Size Disparity among Chinese Adults
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionThe invention of modern information and communications technologies (ICT), such as cellular phones, the Internet, computers, and televisions (TVs), have brought about a radical change in the way...
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Still under the Ancestors' Shadow? Ancestor Worship and Family Formation in Contemporary China
1.IntroductionDemographers have long been interested in patterns of marriage and family in East Asia (e.g., Jones and Yeung 2014; Raymo et al. 2015). China is characterized by an extended kinship network, strong family identity, hierarchical intergenerational...
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Evolution of Fixed Demographic Heterogeneity from a Game of Stable Coexistence
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionEvolutionary game theory is an approach to modeling evolutionary change with a focus on fitness as a function of both an individual's traits and the traits of others in the population (Maynard Smith...
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Global Estimation of Neonatal Mortality Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Splines Regression Model
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionWhen evaluating a country's progress in reducing child mortality, it is important to obtain accurate estimates, be able to project mortality levels, and have some indication of the uncertainty in...
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Educational Differences in Period Fertility: The Case of South Korea, 1996–2010
1.IntroductionEducation is one of the most important factors influencing fertility behavior. There have been a few studies that attempt to quantify fertility differentials by level of education in South Korea (hereafter referred to as Korea). However,...
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Preface to the Special Collection on Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Aging
Invited by the guest editors, I briefly outline in this preface the demographic trends of population aging and the academic and public health needs for interdisciplinary research on healthy aging, which is the general theme of this special collection...
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The Role of Education in the Association between Race/ethnicity/nativity, Cognitive Impairment, and Dementia among Older Adults in the United States
1.IntroductionExtensive research has been conducted on racial and ethnic disparities in cognitive functioning in the United States. These findings indicate that older non-Hispanic Blacks (hereafter, Blacks) and Hispanics have lower cognitive performance...
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First and Second Births among Immigrants and Their Descendants in Switzerland
1.IntroductionThe fertility of migrants in Europe has attracted much attention in the literature, for three main reasons. Firstly, on average and in most countries, migrants' fertility is higher than the fertility of natives (Kahn 1988; Kulu et al. 2017),...
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The Role of Residential Mobility in Reproducing Socioeconomic Stratification during the Transition to Adulthood
1.IntroductionMost studies of residential mobility during the transition to adulthood in the United States focus on either home-leaving (and its counterpart, 'boomeranging' back to the family home) or locational attainment. The former line of inquiry...
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Shocks and Migration in Malawi
1.IntroductionResidents of resource-deprived settings, like rural Malawi, are frequently exposed to various types of shocks. These shocks can be environmental, such as floods or droughts; economic, such as famines, and fluctuating prices for agricultural...
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Integrating Occupations: Changing Occupational Sex Segregation in the United States from 2000 to 2014
1.IntroductionResearchers, policy makers, and the general public have long been interested in why women and men continue to work in such different occupations. Stark occupational segregation by sex has endured for as long as statistics have been kept....
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Historical Reproductive Patterns in Developed Countries: An Aggregate-Level Perspective
1.IntroductionIt is generally accepted that before the demographic transition, people's reproductive behavior was conditioned by cultural and social factors: The total number of births in a given society was regulated by the age of access to marriage...
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High Life Expectancy and Reversed Socioeconomic Gradients of Elderly People in Mexico and Costa Rica
1.IntroductionIn each cohort of Latin Americans, 84% of life table deaths occur after age 60 (UNPD 2015). Despite this preponderance, estimates of old-age mortality in Latin America are controversial, often based on unreliable statistics or indirect...
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No. 21, July-December

Determinants of Infant and Child Mortality in Zimbabwe: Results of Multivariate Hazard Analysis
AbstractThis study addresses important issues in infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe. The objective of the paper is to determine the impact of maternal, socioeconomic and sanitation variables on infant and child mortality. Results show that births...
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Vol. 18, January-June

"I Didn't Write the Questions!" Negotiating Telephone-Survey Questions on Birth Timing
AbstractThis paper examines interviewer-respondent interaction in the collection of demographic data where interviewer and respondents speak the same first language. Conversation analysis (CA), or the analysis of talk in interaction, makes transparent...
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