Demographic Research

Articles from No. 21, July-December

150 Years of Temperature-Related Excess Mortality in the Netherlands
AbstractEven in present-day high-income countries, there is a lot of evidence of a high degree of vulnerability of the population to both high and low outdoor temperatures. The magnitude of temperature-related mortality is strongly related to a wide...
An Analysis of Life Expectancy and Economic Production Using Expectile Frontier Zones
AbstractThe wealth of a country is assumed to have a strong non-linear influence on the life expectancy of its inhabitants. We follow up on research by Preston and study the relationship with gross domestic product. Smooth curves for the average but...
An Application of the Variable-R Method to Subpopulation Growth Rates in a 19th Century Agricultural Population
AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the differential growth rates of the farming and non-farming segments of a rural Scottish community during the 19th and early 20th centuries using the variable-r method allowing for net migration. Using this...
Assortative Matching among Same-Sex and Different-Sex Couples in the United States, 1990-2000
AbstractSame-sex couples are less likely to be homogamous than different-sex couples on a variety of characteristics including race/ethnicity, age, and education. This study confirms results from previous studies which used 1990 U.S. census data and...
Couples' Decisions to Have a First Child: Comparing Pathways to Early and Late Parenthood
AbstractWe investigate the decision-making process of having a first child, using theories on individualisation, lifestyle choices and negotiating partnerships as a starting point. We compare couples who had their first child at a relatively young age...
Darwin and Lotka: Two Concepts of Population
AbstractPopulation was the subject of two major conceptual developments in the second quarter of the 20th century. Both were inspired by evolutionary biology. Lotka developed a mathematics of evolution in human and other species by analogy to thermodynamic...
Death Distribution Methods for Estimating Adult Mortality: Sensitivity Analysis with Simulated Data Errors
AbstractThe General Growth Balance (GGB) and Synthetic Extinct Generations (SEG) methods have been widely used to evaluate the coverage of registered deaths in developing countries. However, relatively little is known about how the methods behave in...
Determinants of Infant and Child Mortality in Zimbabwe: Results of Multivariate Hazard Analysis
AbstractThis study addresses important issues in infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe. The objective of the paper is to determine the impact of maternal, socioeconomic and sanitation variables on infant and child mortality. Results show that births...
Dissecting the Compression of Mortality in Switzerland, 1876-2005
AbstractThis paper aims to examine changes in common longevity and variability of the adult life span, and attempts to answer whether or not the compression of mortality continues in Switzerland in the years 1876-2005. The results show that the negative...
Diverging Trends in Female Old-Age Mortality: A Reappraisal
AbstractOver the second half of the 20th century, a number of divergences and convergences of mortality schedules were observed across the world. Some of these developments remain incompletely understood. In recent overviews of old-age mortality, Meslé...
Do Imputed Education Histories Provide Satisfactory Results in Fertility Analysis in the Western German Context?
AbstractIn many surveys, information on respondents' education histories is restricted to the level and sometimes the date they attained their highest degree. We compare estimates of education effects on first birth transitions using imputed histories...
Estimating Health Expectancies from Two Cross-Sectional Surveys: The Intercensal Method
AbstractHealth expectancies are key indicators for monitoring the health of populations, as well as for informing debates about compression or expansion of morbidity. However, current methodologies for estimating them are not entirely satisfactory. They...
High Suburban Fertility: Evidence from Four Northern European Countries
AbstractWhile numerous studies have compared urban and rural fertility rates across Europe, virtually no studies have distinguished suburbs as a distinct residential context. This study examines fertility variation across different residential contexts...
Is Poland Really 'Immune' to the Spread of Cohabitation?
AbstractVarious data have constantly pointed out a low incidence of non-marital unions in Poland (at 1.4-4.9% among all unions). In this paper we demonstrate that these data, coming exclusively from cross-sectional surveys, clearly underestimate the...
Leaving Home, Family Support and Intergenerational Ties in Italy: Some Regional Differences1
AbstractIn Italy young people leave home at a high age. After leaving, they usually live close to their parents and receive strong support from them (both material and affective). These behaviours are not homogenously spread across the country and important...
"Living Apart Together" Relationships in the United States
AbstractWe use two surveys to describe the demographic and attitudinal correlates of being in "Living Apart Together" (LAT), cohabiting, and marital relationships for heterosexuals, lesbians, and gay men. About one third of U.S. adults not married or...
Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a Recovery in Italy?
AbstractThe goal of this study is to describe the process of birth postponement and recovery in Italy, a country with persistent very low fertility levels.The case of Italy is particularly noteworthy given that this country carries great demographic...
Neither Single, nor in a Couple: A Study of Living Apart Together in France
AbstractAmong living arrangements, living apart together relationships arouse curiosity on the part of sociologists, demographers and even the media. From a scientific point of view, how have noncohabiting relationships evolved in recent decades? How...
Rates of Induced Abortion in Denmark According to Age, Previous Births, and Previous Abortions
AbstractBackground: The effects of various socio-demographic determinants on a woman's risk of having an abortion are relatively well-documented, less attention has however been given to the effect of previous abortions and births. Objective: The objective...
Regional Child Care Availability and Fertility Decisions in Spain
AbstractIn this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal childcare availability for children under 3 has a positive effect on fertility; and (2) Formal childcare availability has different effects across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation...
Relationships between Men's Gender Attitudes and Fertility: Response to Puur et Al.'s "Men's Childbearing Desires and Views of the Male Role in Europe at the Dawn of the 21st Century", Demographic Research 19: 1883-1912
AbstractAn analysis published in a recent edition of this journal (Puur, Olah, Tazi-Preve, and Dorbritz 2008) reported that, in eight European countries, men with egalitarian gender attitudes both desired and had more children than men with more traditional...
Results and Observations from the Reconstruction of Continuous Time Series of Mortality by Cause of Death: Case of West Germany, 1968-1997
AbstractThough many countries have been collecting cause-of-death information from death certificates for more than a century, these valuable data sources remain underexplored. This is certainly due in part to the frequent revisions of the International...
Schelling's Segregation Model: Parameters, Scaling, and Aggregation
AbstractThomas Schelling proposed a simple spatial model to illustrate how, even with relatively mild assumptions on each individual's nearest neighbor preferences, an integrated city would likely unravel to a segregated city, even if all individuals...
Sexual Behaviour Patterns in South Africa and Their Association with the Spread of HIV: Insights from a Mathematical Model
AbstractThis paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes...
Social Inequality and HIV-Testing: Comparing Home- and Clinic-Based Testing in Rural Malawi
AbstractThe plan to increase HIV testing is a cornerstone of the international health strategy against the HIV/AIDS epidemic, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper highlights a problematic aspect of that plan: the reliance on clinic- rather...
Spousal Separation, Selectivity and Contextual Effects: Exploring the Relationship between International Labour Migration and Fertility in Post-Soviet Tajikistan
AbstractThis paper contributes to the sparse literature about the impact of temporary migration on fertility in sending regions. It examines the case of male labour migration from post-Soviet Tajikistan, a significant and relatively recent phenomenon....
The Likoma Network Study: Context, Data Collection, and Initial Results
AbstractThe extent and structure of sexual networks have important consequences for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases such as HIV. However, very few datasets currently exist that allow a detailed investigation of sexual networks in sub-Saharan...
The Malawi Religion Project: Data Collection and Selected Analyses
AbstractScholars have recently become increasingly interested in the role religion plays in the responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we present the Malawi Religion Project (MRP), which provides data to examine the relationship...
The Metastable Birth Trajectory
AbstractThe metastable model generalizes the stable population model by allowing net maternity to change exponentially over age and time. As a result, the metastable model generates an exponentially quadratic birth trajectory, which is characterized...
Understanding Low Fertility in Poland: Demographic Consequences of Gendered Discrimination in Employment and Postsocialist Neoliberal Restructuring
AbstractAfter the state socialist regime of Poland collapsed in 1989, the nation's total fertility rate plummeted from 2.1 to 1.27 by 2007. Simultaneously, Poland severely reduced social service provisions and restricted access to family planning. A...
When Harry Left Sally: A New Estimate of Marital Disruption in the U.S., 1860 - 1948
AbstractThe divorce rate is a poor indicator of marital instability because many marital disruptions never become divorces. This paper provides the first estimate of the rate of marital disruption in the U.S. in 1860 - 1948. In the long run, the cohort...
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