Demographic Research

Articles from Vol. 30, January-June

A Bayesian Analysis of the Spatial Concentration of Individual Wealth in the US North during the Nineteenth Century
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThere is evidence for a growing role of families in creating inequality in income today, especially in the US (Solon 1999; Corak 2004; Bowles, Gintis, and Groves 2008). Inequality in income is also...
Adult Outcomes of Teen Mothers across Birth Cohorts
1. BackgroundAge at first birth and adult outcomesTeen birth rates have decreased over time, but rates are still much higher in the U.S. than in other developed countries. The proportion of births to teens has also declined (National Center for Health...
A Geography of Unmarried Cohabitation in the Americas
1. IntroductionIn the vast majority of countries in both North and South America, unmarried cohabitation has increased significantly in recent decades (Esteve et al. 2012; Binstock 2008; Cabella et al. 2004; Quilodrán 2010; Kennedy and Bumpass 2008;...
A Life-Course Approach to Fertility
1. IntroductionSince the 1970s, the life-course approach as a methodological framework for the empirical analysis of longitudinal individual-level data has fundamentally changed the agenda of demographic research. It has overtaken classic cohort analysis...
An Application of MCMC Simulation in Mortality Projection for Populations with Limited Data
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe Lee-Carter method (Lee and Carter 1992) and its various extensions (e.g., Lee 2000) have been shown to perform satisfactorily for several countries' mortality data when the data volume is sufficient....
A Note on Computing Average State Occupation Times
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThis review is motivated by an interdisciplinary workshop on 'Multistate event history analysis' at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague, in April 2011. The workshop...
Another 'Futile Quest'? A Simulation Study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Model
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionSocial scientists have long been interested in how social processes change over time. Since at least the 1960s (Ryder 1965) this interest has developed into an understanding that change over time...
Anticipatory Child Fostering and Household Economic Security in Malawi
1. IntroductionChild fostering-the custom of children living outside of the natal home-is practiced throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa (Bledsoe 1990; Bledsoe and Isiugo-Abanihe 1989; Goody 1982; Madhavan 2004; Monasch and Boerma 2004; Urassa et al....
Attitudes on Marriage and New Relationships: Cross-National Evidence on the Deinstitutionalization of Marriage
1. IntroductionWhile they are not without precedent, a host of 'new' relationships offer couples options for achieving sexual and emotional intimacy outside heterosexual marriage. From same-sex couples to unmarried cohabiters to committed partners who...
Births to Single Mothers: Age- and Education-Related Changes in Poland between 1985 and 2010
1. IntroductionUnder state socialism Poland had a stable non-marital birth ratio of around 5% until the mid-1980s (Szukalski 2004). Thereafter the ratio rose steadily to 22% in 2012 (Eurostat 2013). The forces driving this upward trend are known to be...
Children Are Costly, but Raising Them May Pay: The Economic Approach to Fertility
1. IntroductionPopulation trends and their economic consequences have long been studied by economists, e.g. by Adam Smith (1776: ch. I.viii), Robert Malthus (1803), or John Maynard Keynes (1937). However, attempts at systematically explaining these macro-...
Children's Union Status and Contact with Mothers: A Cross-National Study
1. IntroductionPopulation aging in North America and Europe has increased the time that individuals spend as mothers, fathers, daughters, and sons. In these demographic contexts the potential for intergenerational contact and support between generations...
Couples' Fertility Decision-Making
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionWhen we look at the literature on family formation and expansion, we find different lines of research. One of these lines focuses on the influence of socio-economic factors. Most of the empirical...
Digit Preferences in Marriage Formation in Sweden: Millennium Marriages and Birthday Peaks
1. Introduction1.1 Digit preferences in data and in real lifeIn the study of demographic behavior, temporality can have important and unexpected influences. Demographic patterns found across various aspects of time, such as calendar time, age, or durations,...
Do Student Loans Delay Marriage? Debt Repayment and Family Formation in Young Adulthood
1. IntroductionA 2012 headline in the Wall Street Journal "To Pay Off Loans, Grads Put Off Marriage, Children" cautioned about a growing hindrance to the economic stability of young adults in the United States (Shellenbarger 2012). The accompanying article...
Economic Support Ratios and the Demographic Dividend in Europe
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionPersistently low fertility levels and increasing rates of survival to older ages, in conjunction with the ageing of the baby boom generation, are the key determinants of the changing age structures...
Educational Differentials in Cohort Fertility during the Fertility Transition in South Korea
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionWomen's education is usually associated with lower fertility at both the population and the individual levels (Bongaarts 2003; Caldwell 1982; Castro Martín 1995; Cochrane 1979; Jeffery and Basu...
Education, Elderly Health, and Differential Population Aging in South Korea: A Demographic Approach
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. Introduction: Alternative ways to measure population agingPopulation aging is a worldwide phenomenon, with the median age of the world population forecast to rise to 38.1 years in 2050 from 26.7 years in 2000...
Estimating the Contribution of Mothers of Foreign Origin to Total Fertility: The Recent Recovery of Period Fertility in the Belgian Region of Flanders
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionFollowing the baby boom and the subsequent baby bust, period fertility had dipped to all-time low levels in Europe by the 1990s. In a number of Southern European as well as Central and Eastern European...
Ethnic Differences in Integration Levels and Return Migration Intentions: A Study of Estonian Migrants in Finland
1. IntroductionMigration from eastern to western Europe has led to a considerable loss of population in some eastern European countries over the past two decades (Apsite 2013; Anniste et al. 2012; Kahanec 2012). As Ivlevs and King (2012) have noted,...
Fertility in the Context of Mexican Migration to the United States: A Case for Incorporating the Pre-Migration Fertility of Immigrants
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe Mexican-American2 population in the United States rose sharply between 2000 and 2010, from 20.6 million to 31.8 million (Passel et al. 2011). This increase accounted for 40% of overall population...
Fertility Transition and Social Stratification in the Town of Alghero, Sardinia (1866-1935)
CONCLUSIONSThe results testify to a new and more conscious attitude towards birth control adopted by the elite minority, while no significant change is detectable for the rest of the population until the 1930s. This is the first research carried out...
Gender-Differentials in the Timing of Measles Vaccination in Rural India
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionMeasles is a highly contagious yet vaccine-preventable respiratory infection, and a major cause of child morbidity and mortality in developing countries.4 The risk of developing severe or fatal...
Health Consequences of Child Labour in Bangladesh
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionWhile increased attention is being paid to the school performance of child workers, the effects of work activities on their health have not received the same attention. Identifying the health effects...
Heterogeneity's Ruses: How Hidden Variation Affects Population Trajectories of Age-Dependent Fecundity in Drosophila Melanogaster
1. IntroductionOne goal of biodemography is to understand the forces that shape trajectories of survival and reproduction in laboratory populations of experimental organisms. Here we examine original and published life history data from five populations...
Homogamy in Socio-Economic Background and Education, and the Dissolution of Cohabiting Unions
1. IntroductionThe extent to which socio-economic homogamy - in other words, similarity in partner status - guides union formation and dissolution is considered an indicator of barriers between status groups in a society. A strong homogamy tendency in...
Household Ecology and Out-Migration among Ethnic Karen along the Thai-Myanmar Border
1. IntroductionStudies of migration in small-scale, indigenous agricultural populations are important not only for demographic research, but also for understanding the mechanisms behind the distribution of populations across landscapes and the spread...
How Does Education Change the Relationship between Fertility and Age-Dependency under Environmental Constraints? A Long-Term Simulation Exercise
1. IntroductionMany scientific and public discussions about demographic trends in low fertility countries are based on the implicit assumption that somehow replacement level fertility (RLF) is the most desirable long-term fertility level for any nation...
Immigrant Fertility in Sweden, 2000-2011: A Descriptive Note
1. Immigrant fertility and the fertility disruption hypothesisFrom the years 2000-2011, female immigrants to Sweden had a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.10, which was well above the TFR of 1.73 for women born in Sweden for the same period. In the present...
Income Pooling Strategies among Cohabiting and Married Couples: A Comparative Perspective
1. IntroductionIncome pooling strategies, namely, whether couples have a common purse or keep their money apart, constitute an important aspect of a co-resident couple's everyday life, regardless of whether the partners are married or not. Income pooling...
Investigating Healthy Life Expectancy Using a Multi-State Model in the Presence of Missing Data and Misclassification
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionStatistical models for multi-state processes can be found in many applications. In demog- raphy, the models can be used to study transition processes, such as change in marital status, relocating...
Jobs, Careers, and Becoming a Parent under State Socialist and Market Conditions: Evidence from Estonia 1971-2006
1. IntroductionThe postponement of parenthood is the most prominent feature of contemporary fertility dynamics in Europe. Mills et al. (2011) demonstrate that women's age at first birth has steadily increased by about one year per decade across almost...
Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionEvery two years, the Population Division of the United Nations (UN) publishes the World Population Prospects (WPP), reporting population estimates and projections for all coun- tries. Experts then...
Long-Term Trends of Men's Co-Residence with Children in England and Wales
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionIn all developed societies, the Second Demographic Transition (Lesthaeghe 1995, van de Kaa 1987) has changed the structure of men and women's life courses. Among the outcome of these transformations...
Male and Female Sterility in Zambia
1. IntroductionPopulation measures of fertility and sterility are usually constructed from birth histories from women, and thus limited to the population of women, rather than the general population. However, fertility or its absence are conditions experienced...
Men's Economic Status and Marital Transitions of Fragile Families
1. IntroductionThe "retreat from marriage" has been observed in all developed countries, but in recent years commentators have noted an interesting social class change in marriage patterns. The marriage gap between the most advantaged (demonstrated by...
Migration and Marriage: Modeling the Joint Process
1. IntroductionMigration decisions are made in conjunction with decisions about other life course events (Groot, Mulder, Das, and Manting 2011; Kulu and Milewski 2007; Schachter 2001). For example, when young adults leave the parental home and settle...
Modelling the Constraints on Consanguineous Marriage When Fertility Declines
1. Background1.1 Defining consanguinityIn terms of clinical genetics, a consanguineous marriage is defined as a union between two individuals who are related as second cousins or closer (Hamamy 2012). The inbreeding coefficient, F=0.0156, represents...
Multistate Event History Analysis with Frailty
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionDemographers are increasingly interested in understanding life histories or the individual life course, with a focus on events, their sequence, ordering and transitions that people make from one...
Non-Marital Pregnancy and the Second Demographic Transition in Australia in Historical Perspective
1. IntroductionIn the first English language exposition of the second demographic transition, van de Kaa (1987: p. 7) highlighted an associated -large change in norms and attitudes" in Western Europe between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s. This signalled...
Occupation and Fertility on the Frontier: Evidence from the State of Utah
1. IntroductionThe United States of the 19th century was marked by initially quite high fertility levels but also by the onset of a relatively early decline in fertility. The US frontier was characterized by high fertility relative to the US norm, and...
Pathways to Marriage and Cohabitation in Central America
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionIn Latin America it is, and has been, common for couples to form non-marital cohabita- tions (informal unions) instead of formal marriages. The decades long US and European (relevant to some countries)...
Performance-Based Measures of Physical Function as Mortality Predictors: Incremental Value beyond Self-Reports
1. IntroductionThe process linking chronic and acute health conditions to disability has been conceptualized as a progression through four stages: (1) pathology; (2) substantial impairments; (3) functional limitations (restrictions in basic physical...
Quantifying Paradigm Change in Demography
1. IntroductionThe year 2012 marked the 350th anniversary of the publication of John Graunt's Bills of Mortality and - arguably - the birth of demography as a formal discipline of scientific enquiry. In accordance with the long-standing empirical tradition...
Quantifying Policy Trade-Offs to Support Aging Populations
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionMost developed countries face a demographic challenge - population aging will reduce the portion of the adult population who participate in the labor force, given current age- specific participation...
Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe United Nations (UN) Population Division produces population estimates and projections for all countries every two years and publishes them in the biennial World Population Prospects (WPP). These...
Sex Composition of Children, Parental Separation, and Parity Progression: Is Finland a Nordic Outlier?
1. IntroductionPerhaps one of the most controversial issues of family demography during the past quarter of a century (see e.g. White 1990; Diekmann and Schmidheiny 2004) is the claim that couples with daughters are more likely to separate than couples...
She Said, He Said: Comparing Mothers' and Fathers' Reports on the Non-Resident Father's Contact with His Children
1. IntroductionIt is widely recognized that non-resident fathers tend to depict themselves as more actively involved with their children than the resident mothers do (for instance Seltzer and Brandreth 1994). Hence, analyses using data from non-resident...
Sibling Support and the Educational Prospects of Young Adults in Malawi
1. IntroductionAcross sub-Saharan Africa, patterns of family support vary by country, region, system of descent, and ethnicity. Despite this heterogeneity, it is widely recognized that kin networks represent critical sources of social and economic support....
Social Class and Net Fertility before, during, and after the Demographic Transition: A Micro-Level Analysis of Sweden 1880-1970
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe decline of fertility in the demographic transition has been a major theme in historical demography for some time. Much of the literature focusing on the demographic aspects of the decline has...
Social Networks and Fertility
1. IntroductionDemographers are interested in population fertility and its dynamics. Changes in the tempo and quantum of fertility are macro phenomena; i.e., they are the aggregate result of the childbearing behavior of individual actors. Efforts to...
Socioeconomic Fertility Differentials in a Late Transition Setting: A Micro-Level Analysis of the Saguenay Region in Quebec
1. IntroductionThe study of socioeconomic stratification and fertility before, during and after the transition has raised various issues that are discussed in the vast literature about the relationship between socioeconomic factors and fertility behavior....
Spatial Inequalities in Infant Survival at an Early Stage of the Longevity Revolution: A Pan-European View across 5000+ Regions and Localities in 1910
1. MotivationSpatial inequalities in human development at both the national and the subnational levels are of great concern to international organisations and national governments (UN System Task Team 2012, European Union 2010). Since at least the late...
Structural and Diffusion Effects in the Dutch Fertility Transition, 1870-1940
1. IntroductionEconomic development, changes in the occupational structure, and educational transformation are central elements in structural explanations of the demographic transition (Davis 1945; Notestein 1953; Thompson 1929). Innovation diffusion...
The Historical Fertility Transition at the Micro Level: Southern Sweden 1815-1939
1. IntroductionOne of the major demographic changes during the past 200 years has been the emergence of the two-child norm as part of the creation of the modern family. In most parts of Western Europe this process started in the late nineteenth century...
The Long-Term Consequences of Parental Divorce for Children's Educational Attainment
1. IntroductionStudies of the implications of parental separation for children's well-being have consistently shown that children of divorced parents fare worse on different measures of well-being than children living in intact families (Amato 2001;...
The Mid-Twentieth Century Baby Boom and the Changing Educational Gradient in Belgian Cohort Fertility
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionIn many Western countries, the transition from medium-high to low fertility that occurred from late nineteenth to the late twentieth century was interrupted during the period around the 1950s and...
The Sexual Double Standard and Gender Differences in Attitudes toward Casual Sex among U.S. University Students
1. IntroductionIn the United States today, average age at first intercourse is 17, first marriages are typically in the mid-20s, and premarital sex is ubiquitous (Guttmacher Institute 2013). Numerous other affluent nations also have late marriage and...
Three-Generation Family Households in Early Childhood: Comparisons between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia
1. IntroductionDemographic shifts over the last 40 years, away from marriage, toward increased cohabitation and non-marital childbearing, have resulted in increasingly complex living arrangements. The simultaneous aging of the population is likely to...
Value of Children and the Social Production of Welfare
The Value of Children (VOC) approach combines a multi-level and action-oriented theoretical model of generative behavior based on the principles of methodological individualism (Coleman 1990) with the welfare maximizing assumptions derived from social...
What Happens after You Drop out? Transition to Adulthood among Early School-Leavers in Urban Indonesia
1. IntroductionAlthough there is a clear trend of educational expansion shaping a protracted pattern of transition to adulthood in East and Southeast Asia (Furstenberg 2013; Yeung and Alipio 2013), large inequalities in youth education attainment persist...
When Not to Have Another Baby: An Evolutionary Approach to Low Fertility
1. An introduction to evolutionary demographyEvolutionary demography (or the application of evolutionary theory to human demographic behaviour) rests on the assumption that all organisms are designed by natural selection. As evolutionary theory is an...
When One Spouse Has an Affair, Who Is More Likely to Leave?1
1. BackgroundDespite trends toward permissiveness in premarital sex, most Americans disapprove of extramarital sex. In a 1992 American survey, 77% declared it -always wrong," and only 25% of married men and 15% of married women claimed to have ever engaged...
White-Hispanic Differences in Meeting Lifetime Fertility Intentions in the U.S
1. IntroductionDifferences in fertility rates across ethnic groups in the U.S. are well documented, with Hispanic women bearing more children than non-Hispanic White and Black women, but the reasons for these differences remain unclear (Bean and Tienda...
Why Do Lifespan Variability Trends for the Young and Old Diverge? A Perturbation Analysis
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. Introduction: Divergence in lifespan variabilityTo understand the demographic transition of the past century and a half, researchers have analyzed the dynamics of mortality declines using both empirical data...
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