Demographic Research

Articles from Vol. 29, July-December

Age at Marriage and the Risk of Divorce in England and Wales
AbstractBACKGROUNDA well-documented association exists between age at marriage and the risk of divorce. However, substantial gaps in our knowledge and understanding of its origins, nature, and implications still exist.OBJECTIVESThis article documents...
Age Groups and the Measure of Population Aging
AbstractBACKGROUNDMeasures of population aging are important because they shape our perception of demo- graphic trends. Indicators of aging based on fixed ages contributed to a dramatic portrayal of demographic evolutions, some of which were associated...
All Tied Up: Tied Staying and Tied Migration within the United States, 1997 to 2007
AbstractBACKGROUNDThe family migration literature presumes that women are cast into the role of the tied migrant. However, clearly identifying tied migrants is a difficult empirical task, since it requires the identification of a counterfactual: who...
An Examination of Black/white Differences in the Rate of Age-Related Mortality Increase
BACKGROUNDThe rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises...
Cause-Specific Measures of Life Years Lost
AbstractBACKGROUNDA new measure of the number of life years lost due to specific causes of death is introduced.METHODSThis measure is based on the cumulative incidence of death, it does not require "independence" of causes, and it satisfies simple balance...
Could Changes in Reported Sex Ratios at Birth during and after China's 1958-1961 Famine Support the Adaptive Sex Ratio Adjustment Hypothesis?
AbstractBACKGROUNDThe adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis suggests that when mothers are in poor conditions the sex ratio of their offspring will be biased towards females. Major famines provide opportunities for testing this hypothesis because...
Declining Health Disadvantage of Non-Marital Children: Explanation of the Trend in the Czech Republic 1990-2010
AbstractBACKGROUNDThere has been a rapid spread of non-marital childbearing in the Czech Republic during the last two decades. At the same time, the low birth weight rates of children born to married and unmarried mothers have converged.OBJECTIVEThe...
Delayed Entry into First Marriage and Marital Stability: Further Evidence on the Becker-Landes-Michael Hypothesis
AbstractBACKGROUNDIn their pioneering research, Becker, Landes, and Michael (1977) found that beyond age 30 there is a positive relationship between women's age at first marriage and marital instability. They interpreted this finding as a "poor-match...
Distortion of Regional Old-Age Mortality Due to Late-Life Migration in the Netherlands?
AbstractBACKGROUNDRegional mortality differences are an important public health indicator and can serve as the basis for population forecasts and local planning. Health-related migration at old age may distort observed regional mortality.OBJECTIVEWe...
Does Migration Benefit the Schooling of Children Left Behind? Evidence from Rural Northwest China
AbstractBACKGROUNDWhile many studies have found that migration can benefit home communities and family members leftbehind by increasing household income, thus easing liquidity constraints on investment; less is known about how "internal" migration and...
Domestic Gender Equality and Childbearing in Sweden
AbstractBACKGROUNDSweden, which is among the most gender-equal societies in the world, combines "modern? family patterns such as unmarried cohabitation, delayed parenthood, high maternal labor force participation, and high break-up rates - all usually...
Do Small Labor Market Entry Cohorts Reduce Unemployment?
AbstractBACKGROUNDGermany, like many OECD countries, faces a shift in the age composition of its population, and will face an even more drastic demographic change in the years ahead. From a theoretical point of view, decreasing cohort sizes may on the...
Effects of Parental Union Dissolution on Child Mortality and Schooling in Burkina Faso
AbstractBACKGROUNDFamily structure and union dissolution has been one of the most thoroughly studied determinants of children's wellbeing worldwide. To date, however, few of these studies have examined sub-Saharan Africa, especially countries in West...
Explaining the Rural-Urban Gap in Infant Mortality in India
AbstractBACKGROUNDPrior studies suggest that infant mortality in rural areas of India is substantially higher than in urban areas. However, little is known about the determinants explaining such excess of rural mortality.OBJECTIVEThis study systematically...
Family Dynamics and Housing: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Findings
AbstractOBJECTIVEIn this reflection I discuss my conceptual ideas and the latest empirical findings regarding the connections between leaving the parental home, marriage, parenthood, and separation on the one hand, and housing on the other. I also discuss...
Family Influence in Fertility: A Longitudinal Analysis of Sibling Correlations in First Birth Risk and Completed Fertility among Swedish Men and Women
AbstractBACKGROUNDThe intergenerational transmission of fertility has received much attention in demography. This has been done by estimating the correlation between parents' and offsprings' fertility. An alternative method that provides a more comprehensive...
Family Policies in the Context of Low Fertility and Social Structure
AbstractOBJECTIVEIn this paper we investigate the effectiveness of family policies in the context of the social structure of a population.METHODSWe use an agent-based model to analyse the impact of policies on individual fertility decisions and on fertility...
Fertility Intentions: An Approach Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior
AbstractOBJECTIVETo discuss issues and concerns in the application of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to the decision to have a child.METHODWe review the basic structure of the TPB, its principles, and its assumptions as they apply to fertility...
Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe: Recent Evidence from Order-Specific Data
OBJECTIVEThis paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade.METHODSUsing data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database,...
How Do Educational and Occupational Resources Relate to the Timing of Family Formation? A Couple Analysis of the Netherlands
AbstractBACKGROUNDFertility research often uses data from women only. This can bias the results if the effects of education and occupation on fertility are dependent upon the characteristics of the male partner. Using retrospective life-course information...
How Well Does the American Community Survey Count Naturalized Citizens?1
AbstractBACKGROUNDCitizenship status among the foreign born is a crucial indicator of social and political incorporation, yet there are good reasons to suspect that citizenship status is inaccurately reported on U.S. surveys.OBJECTIVEThis paper updates...
Impact of Different Mortality Forecasting Methods and Explicit Assumptions on Projected Future Life Expectancy: The Case of the Netherlands
AbstractBACKGROUNDWith the rapid aging of the population, mortality forecasting becomes increasingly important, especially for the insurance and pension industries. However, a wide variety of projection methods are in use, both between and within countries,...
Integrating Uncertainty in Time Series Population Forecasts: An Illustration Using a Simple Projection Model
AbstractBACKGROUNDPopulation forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.OBJECTIVEIn this paper, we use Bayesian time series...
Intergenerational Transfers and European Families: Does the Number of Siblings Matter?
AbstractBACKGROUNDExisting research on intergenerational transfers has focused on income and wealth as the predominant determinants of the provision of financial assistance to adult children (Albertini, Kohli, and Vogel 2006; Zissimopoulos and Smith...
Lifetime Income and Old Age Mortality Risk in Italy over Two Decades
AbstractBACKGROUNDThe evidence on the shape and trend of the relationship between (lifetime) income and old age mortality is scarce and mixed both for North American and European countries. Nationwide evidence for Italy does not exist yet.OBJECTIVEWe...
Love, Marriage, Then the Baby Carriage? Marriage Timing and Childbearing in Sweden
AbstractBACKGROUNDSome scholars claim that marriage is an outmoded institution, decoupled from the childbearing process in Sweden. However, it is likely that the presence of children is still linked to marriage, since most children born to cohabiting...
Low Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: The Importance of Financial Education and Job Retraining
AbstractBACKGROUNDInternational research has shown that workers have a rather low level of financial literacy. Financial literacy is associated with lifetime planning and saving for retirement. This article focuses on the role of financial literacy in...
Minor Gradient in Mortality by Education at the Highest Ages: An Application of the Extinct-Cohort Method
AbstractBACKGROUNDSocioeconomic mortality differentials are known to exist almost universally. Many studies show a trend towards convergence with increasing age. Information about the highest ages is very rare, though.OBJECTIVEWe want to find out whether...
Modeling Reproductive Decisions with Simple Heuristics
AbstractBACKGROUNDMany of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless,...
Mortality by Marital Status in a Rapidly Changing Society: Evidence from the Czech Republic
AbstractBACKGROUNDMarried people tend to live longer than their unmarried counterparts, and the advantage in life expectancy enjoyed by married people relative to other groups has been increasing over time. The question of whether the benefits of marriage...
Nonresident Fathers and Formal Child Support: Evidence from the CPS, the NSFG, and the SIPP
AbstractBACKGROUNDSince the beginning of the 1980s, researchers have been raising concerns that surveys underestimated nonresident fatherhood due to sampling and questionnaire effects. Consequently, federal data collection efforts focused resources on...
Old Age Mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia*
AbstractBACKGROUNDEastern and South-Eastern Asian countries have witnessed a marked decline in old age mortality in recent decades. Yet no studies have investigated the trends and patterns in old age mortality and cause-of-death in the region.OBJECTIVEWe...
Parental Education and the Gender Gap in University Completion in Europe
AbstractBACKGROUNDA female-favorable gender gap in university completion has emerged in the majority of industrialized countries in recent decades. Research in the United States demonstrates that the female advantage in college completion is the largest...
Patriarchy and Fertility in Albania
AbstractBACKGROUNDTheories of fertility collapse in the post-socialist era imply a decline in the moral primacy of traditional social institutions. Yet gender inequality actually increased in many countries, and there is a scarcity of empirical evidence...
Patterns of Reproductive Behavior in Transitional Italy: The Rediscovery of the Italian Fertility Survey of 1961
AbstractBACKGROUNDFew studies have investigated the role of the intermediate variables of fertility at the micro-level in Italy, and, in particular, little is known about the influence of socioeconomic factors. This is the reason that the mechanisms...
Prenatal Malnutrition and Subsequent Foetal Loss Risk: Evidence from the 1959-1961 Chinese Famine
AbstractBACKGROUNDScientists disagree on whether prenatal malnutrition has long-term influences on women's reproductive function, and empirical evidence of such long -term effects remains limited and inconsistent.METHODSUsing the retrospective pregnancy...
Putting on the Moves: Individual, Household, and Community-Level Determinants of Residential Mobility in Canada
AbstractBACKGROUNDInternal residential mobility is an important contributor to economic vitality, helping to address gaps in the labour market, assisting regions to develop comparative advantages, and encouraging the circulation of skills, capital, and...
Reforging the Wedding Ring: Exploring a Semi-Artificial Model of Population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian Process Emulators
AbstractBACKGROUNDWe extend the 'Wedding Ring' agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behavioural explanations that drive the observed nuptiality...
Register-Based Estimates of Parents' Coresidence in Sweden, 1969-2007
AbstractBACKGROUNDMany of the dramatic changes in family formation and dissolution observed in wealthy countries over the past 60 years are tracked through vital statistics or censuses. The signature change in family behavior - non-marital cohabitation...
Sex Ratios at Sexual Maturity and Longevity: Evidence from Swedish Register Data
AbstractBACKGROUNDThis study tests the recently proposed hypothesis that the contextual sex ratio at sexual maturity is related to longevity. Previous empirical research in the United States has shown that a higher proportion of males at the age of sexual...
The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa
AbstractBACKGROUNDWe investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard...
The Determinants of Internal Mobility in Italy, 1995-2006: A Comparison of Italians and Resident Foreigners
AbstractOBJECTIVEIn this paper, we study the determinants of internal migration in Italy from 1995 to 2006.METHODSTo conduct this investigation, we applied an augmented version of the gravity model to the migratory flows of Italians and resident foreigners....
The Fragility of the Future and the Tug of the Past: Longevity in Latin America and the Caribbean
AbstractBACKGROUNDThe cohorts who will reach age 60 after 2010 in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) are beneficiaries of a massive mortality decline that began as early as 1930. The bulk of this decline is due to the diffusion of low-cost...
The Life Cycle Dimension of Time Transfers in Europe
AbstractBACKGROUNDReallocation of economic resources between generations and genders has important con- sequences for economic growth and inequality. Unpaid work is a relevant component of intergenerational transfers, but is invisible to traditional...
Validation of Spatially Allocated Small Area Estimates for 1880 Census Demography
AbstractOBJECTIVEThis paper details the validation of a methodology which spatially allocates Census microdata to census tracts, based on known, aggregate tract population distributions. To protect confidentiality, public-use microdata contain no spatial...
Youth Prospects in a Time of Economic Recession
AbstractBACKGROUNDThe paper gives an update to earlier analysis considering youth poverty and transition to adulthood, which is timely given the economic crisis engulfing many countries in Europe. Whereas the crisis is affecting young people in particular,...
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