Demographic Research

Articles from Vol. 41, July-December

A Framework for the Prospective Analysis of Ethno-Cultural Super-Diversity
1.IntroductionIn what Coleman (2006) terms the "Third Demographic Transition," immigration has led to rapid increases in cultural, ethnic, and religious diversity in many high-income, low-fertility countries. This rise in 'super-diversity' (Vertovec...
An Exploration of Differences in Ideal Family Size between Muslim and Non-Muslim Women in France
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionAlthough Muslim women have higher birth rates than women of other backgrounds in contemporary France (Toulemon 2004; Westoff and Frejka 2007), there are widespread misconceptions about Muslim fertility...
APC Curvature Plots: Displaying Nonlinear Age-Period-Cohort Pattern on Lexis Plots
1. IntroductionIt has long been recognized that populations change along the three dimensions of age, period (typically calendar year), and cohort (typically year of birth) (Caselli and Vallin 2005; Keiding 2011). The question of whether it is possible...
A Spatial Dynamic Panel Approach to Modelling the Space-Time Dynamics of Interprovincial Migration Flows in China
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionIn recent times, migration has played an increasingly prominent role in shaping regional population growth, socioeconomic transition, and regional resilience (Bijak 2011; White 2016; Biagi et al....
Capturing Trends in Canadian Divorce in an Era without Vital Statistics
1.IntroductionMeasures of marriage and divorce are key indicators of formal unions, which are also important for understanding the family context where most fertility takes place, as well as wealth accumulation, housing, and caregiving. Vital statistics...
Changing Gender Relations, Declining Fertility? an Analysis of Childbearing Trajectories in 19thcentury Netherlands
1. IntroductionDuring the 19th century and first decades of the 20th century, most European societies went through the fertility transition, the shift from high to low fertility. Among historical demographers, a long-standing and still unresolved debate...
Childlessness, Sex Composition of Children, and Divorce Risks in China
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)Abstract1. IntroductionThe link between children and the risk of divorce has been well studied in the Western context, but less so in other settings. Existing studies on the associations between children...
Civilian Killings and Disappearances during Civil War in El Salvador (1980-1992)
1. IntroductionThe civil war in El Salvador ended over a quarter century ago, but the total mortality due to violence is still unknown. Reasonable educated guesses about the total magnitude of violent death hover around 75,000 (see, e.g., Betancur, Figueredo...
Does the Association between Children and Happiness Vary by Level of Religiosity? the Evidence from Israel
1.IntroductionThere is a widespread belief that parenthood makes people happier (Hansen 2012; Kohler and Mencarini 2016). However, research has shown mixed results on the association between happiness and fertility, finding evidence for both positive...
Earning Their Keep? Fostering, Children's Education, and Work in North-Western Tanzania
1.BackgroundFostering, i.e., permanently or temporarily raising children that are not one's biological children, is common in many societies worldwide (Silk 1980; Scelza and Silk 2014). Across 40 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 8.6% of children aged...
Economic Rationales for Kin Marriage: Assessing the Evidence Using Egyptian Panel Data
1.IntroductionThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is exceptional among world regions in its high rates of marriage between close relatives (Reilly 2013). Conjugal unions between cousins and other relatives have historically been the preferred form...
Editorial: P-Values, Theory, Replicability, and Rigour
1. IntroductionThe last few years have witnessed a lively discussion questioning the rigour of a lot of empirical research that relies on the application of statistical methods, especially in the social sciences. Doubts have spread about the reproducibility...
Editorial: The Past, Present, and Future of Demographic Research
1998-1999: Getting started, looking aheadGriffith Feeney (editor, 1999)Jim Vaupel told me of his ideas for a new online journal shortly after he was appointed Founding Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in 1996. I had...
Educational and Age Assortative Mating in China: The Importance of Marriage Order
1.IntroductionAssortative mating, the question of 'who marries whom,' has important implications for the production and reproduction of social inequality (Schwartz 2013). Despite the decline of first marriage and the rise of remarriage in many countries...
Educational Reproduction in Europe: A Descriptive Account
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionIn recent years, sociologists have begun to draw the distinction between retrospective and prospective studies of intergenerational mobility. In the conventional retrospective approach, a sample...
Forty Years of Fertility Changes in the Sahel
1.IntroductionFertility change in sub-Saharan Africa has received a considerable amount of attention. While rapid fertility declines have been observed in Asia, Latin America, and northern Africa, the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa started...
Geofaceting: Aligning Small Multiples for Regions in a Spatially Meaningful Way
1.IntroductionIn data visualization, it is often challenging to represent multiple relevant dimensions while preserving the readability of a plot. This is especially true when the task is to expose spatial variation of some complex phenomenon. In such...
Homeownership after Separation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Finnish Register Data
1.IntroductionIn the past few decades, European countries have experienced significant changes in partnership dynamics and patterns. Young adults increasingly postpone or forgo marriage and live in nonmarital cohabitation instead. Separation, divorce,...
Housework Share and Fertility Preference in Four East Asian Countries in 2006 and 2012
1.Special issue overviewThis special issue is comprised of five papers focused on family trends and domestic division of labour in four East Asian countries: China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In a comparative paper analysing the association between...
How Marriages Based on Bride Capture Differ: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
1.IntroductionAccording to ethnographic reports, many women were captured for marriage in societies across Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and the Americas in the past (Ayres 1974; Barnes 1999). In many places, this so-called bride capture no longer...
How Reducing Differentials in Education and Labor Force Participation Could Lessen Workforce Decline in the EU-28
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionFollowing several decades of low fertility levels, in many European countries the working-age population (generally defined as those aged between 15 and 64) is or will soon be shrinking, while the...
Impacts of Education and Immigration on the Size and Skills of the Future Workforce
1.IntroductionIn most developed countries, current immigration has reached historical levels. population growth is now mainly fuelled by immigration (Wilson et al. 2013). In the context of population ageing, where a growing number of people are about...
Intergenerational Coresidence and the Subjective Well-Being of Older Adults in China: The Moderating Effect of Living Arrangement Preference and Intergenerational Contact
1. IntroductionThe link between intergenerational coresidence and older adults' well-being has been studied extensively in the social science literature (Hays 2002). Although relations between parents and coresidential children can produce tension and...
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionHuman migration is an important demographic, economic, environmental, geopolitical, and sociocultural process (Black et al. 2011; Bodvarsson and Van den Berg 2013; Brettell and Hollifield 2015; Castles,...
Introduction to the Special Collection on 'Children and Family Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa'
1. IntroductionWhy focus research on children and families in Africa?Changes in attitudes towards children are a dimension of the demographic transition that has been extensively covered in the West but is under-researched in Africa. Yet current local...
Introduction to the Special Collection on Spatial Mobility, Family Dynamics, and Gender Relations
1. IntroductionThe aim of this special collection (SC) is to highlight the importance of and expand our knowledge on the interplay between spatial mobility, family life courses and contexts, and gender relations.3 Growing research evidence suggests that,...
Investigating China's Inter-Prefecture Migration from a Place Attractivity Perspective, Its Spatial Patterns, and Demographic Characteristics
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionMaintaining orderly migration in China has been regarded as "a significant strategic choice for realizing China's modernizations" (Li 2012) and a new engine to boost China's socioeconomic development...
Is a Positive Association between Female Employment and Fertility Still Spurious in Developed Countries?
1.BackgroundFrom an economic viewpoint, the increasing role of women in the labor market is expected to raise the opportunity cost of childbearing and thereby reduce fertility (Becker 1981). If this is correct, there should be a negative association...
Is the Age Difference between Partners Related to Women's Earnings?
1.IntroductionThe gender gap in income is large and persists throughout the life course. In the 28 countries of the European Union in 2014, the average gender wage gap (the difference between the average gross hourly earnings of male and of female paid...
Living Arrangement Dynamics of Older Adults in Mexico: Latent Class Analysis in an Accelerated Longitudinal Design
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionHigh-income economies have developed social security, pension, and public health systems to provide care and support to older adults. Conversely, in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) there...
Maternal Educational Attainment and Infant Mortality in the United States: Does the Gradient Vary by Race/ethnicity and Nativity?
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionA large literature documents that maternal education is positively associated with favorable infant health, including lower rates of low birth weight, preterm birth, and infant mortality (Chou et...
Migration Influenced by Environmental Change in Africa: A Systematic Review of Empirical Evidence
1.IntroductionThe relationship between environmental change and migration has gained public attention in both the media and political discourse in the past several years (Bettini 2013). This is reflected in increasing numbers of news stories and reports...
Mortality Convergence of Twins and Singletons in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.IntroductionTwin-singleton mortality differences in early ages are an important source of child inequality in all societies. Owing to the unfavorable fetal conditions of twins resulting in growth retardation and low birth weight, their risk of death...
Mortality Shifts and Mortality Compression in Period and Cohort Life Tables
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionMortality trends in a certain country are often characterized using the development of the life expectancy (LE) at birth over time. For a given year, the period LE reflects the expected life length...
On the Multifaceted Impact of Migration on the Fertility of Receiving Countries: Methodological Insights and Contemporary Evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionThe impact of migration on a population's size and age composition is well understood (e.g., Alho 2008; Espenshade 1986, 1994; Murphy 2016). Among the related questions that have been less explored...
Parental Childcare Support, Sibship Status, and Mothers' Second-Child Plans in Urban China
(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. IntroductionThere is a large body of literature portraying how siblings interact and exert their influences on one another's development and adjustment during childhood. Although early research suggests that...
Separation, Divorce, and Housing Tenure: A Cross-Country Comparison
1.BackgroundAccess to homeownership is one of the key dimensions of inequality in industrialised countries (Dewilde 2008); those who become homeowners will benefit in the long run whereas those who cannot afford homeownership will likely be disadvantaged....
Smooth Constrained Mortality Forecasting
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionMortality modeling and forecasting are crucial in epidemiology and population studies, as well as in the insurance and pensions industries. In recent decades, several methodologies have been proposed,...
Subnational Population Forecasts: Do Users Want to Know about Uncertainty?
1.IntroductionSubnational population forecasts are used by governments and the business sector for a variety of purposes, including service delivery, infrastructure requirements, workforce planning, site selection, and market assessments. They inform...
The Age Difference between Spouses and Reproduction in 19th Century Sweden
1.IntroductionThe question of whether female autonomy within marriage is related to fertility outcomes is addressed in a growing body of empirical research, most of which focuses on contemporary high fertility populations such as sub-Saharan African...
The Dynamics of the Family Network during Childhood: A Genealogical and Longitudinal Approach to Rural Mali
1.IntroductionChildren growing up in rural sub-Saharan Africa are usually surrounded by a family constellation made up of many relatives. Knowledge of African family systems and their complexity comes mostly from anthropological research. That research...
The Formal Demography of Kinship: A Matrix Formulation
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionBirth and death are universals of demography. Every individual, without exception, will eventually die. Every individual, without exception, was born and most individuals will have the experience...
The Geography of Changing Fertility in Myanmar
1.IntroductionMyanmar has experienced rapid population growth over the past half century, more than tripling in population since establishing its current borders in 1948. However, the most recent census data show a smaller than forecasted population....
The Health of Biracial Children in Two-Parent Families in the United States
1.IntroductionThe year 2017 marked the 50th anniversary of Loving vs. Virginia, the landmark Supreme Court case that declared anti-miscegenation laws unconstitutional in the United States. During the five decades following this decision, the share of...
The Impact of the Choice of Life Table Statistics When Forecasting Mortality
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.IntroductionLife expectancy forecasts underpin social, economic, and medical decisions as well as individuals' choices, for example, about savings and retirement. Accurate mortality forecasts are crucial, but...
The Limits to Cumulative Causation Revisited: Urban-Origin Mexico-US Migration in an Era of Increased Immigration Restrictions
1. IntroductionOne of the most influential theories that have been developed to explain the persistence of international migration flows is cumulative causation (Massey et al. 1993; Morawska 2007; de Haas 2010). According to this theory, migration is...
The Relation between Cardiovascular Mortality and Development: A Study of Small Areas in Brazil, 2001-2015
1.IntroductionDeaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are increasing and CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide; that is, more people die annually from CVDs than from any other cause (Franco et al. 2011; Lozano et al. 2012; Roth et al. 2015, 2017a,...
The Role of Conflict and Organized Violence in International Forced Migration
1.IntroductionBoth the number of internally and internationally displaced people and the volume of new asylum applications have increased in recent years as a result of intensifying violent conflicts since 2010. According to the Office of the United...
The Role of Education and Educational-Occupational Mismatches in Decisions regarding Commuting and Interregional Migration from Eastern to Western Germany
1.IntroductionThis paper examines the role of education and educational-occupational mismatch in men's and women's job-related mobility from eastern to western Germany, including both interregional migration and commuting.Even though previous research...
The Threshold Age of the Lifetable Entropy
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1.RelationshipThe lifetable entropy is a dimensionless indicator of the relative variation in the length of life compared to life expectancy at birth (Leser 1955; Keyfitz 1968, 1977; Demetrius 1974, 1978). It...
Union Dissolution and Housing Trajectories in Britain
1.IntroductionSince the 1960s, divorce rates have increased in all industrialized countries (Thomson 2014). In England and Wales the number of divorces increased from 24,000 in 1960 to 111,000 in 2014 (Office for National Statistics 2016). Additionally,...
When Richer Doesn't Mean Thinner: Ethnicity, Socioeconomic Position, and the Risk of Child Obesity in the United Kingdom
1. BackgroundIn the United Kingdom over the last two decades, overweight and obesity (hereafter referred to as overweight/obese) have become increasingly common in children. Amongst a cohort of UK children born around the year 2001, 20% were categorized...
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