The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems

Articles from Vol. 14, No. 4, Winter

Consensus Forecasts of Financial Institutions
The latest survey of financial forecasters suggests modest economic growth over the next four quarters -- moving up, but below the longterm trend. Look for slow consumer spending. The projection is for short-term rates to decline slowly, and longer-term...
Forecasting with Demand Forecast Group Database at Bell Atlantic
The Demand Forecast Group (DFG) database is a Bell Communications Research (Bellcore) developed 'data'repository and forecasting tool, capable of storing corporate information from a variety of sources. It is part of Bell Atlantic's "Enterprise Computing...
International Economic Outlook: The Maastricht Fiscal Drag Will Slow Down the Pace of Expansion in Western Europe
THE MAASTRICHT FISCAL DRAG WILL SLOW DOWN THE PACE OF EXPANSION IN WESTERN EUROPEI. Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in EuropeThe process of economic integration in Western Europe began in 1988 with the creation of the Delors committee for the study...
Managing Technology to Create a World of Networks
Working together with professors, students, industrial colleagues and customers can help to explore new technologies and their applications ... what highway systems and airports have done for the transportation of goods in the last of the 20th Century,...
Neural Networks vs. Conventional Methods of Forecasting
In neural networks one does not need to specify the nature of relationship, linear or curvilinear, that exists between input and output data ... one can specify more than one variable... neural networks tend to do better than conventional models.The...
Orders or Shipments: Which Ones to Forecast?
Order forecasts (also called demand forecasts) refer to the forecasts of booked orders. Booked orders may come from distributors, wholesalers or retailers. Shipment forecasts, on the other hand, refer to the forecasts of what would be shipped in any...
Target Marketing with Logit Regression
Target marketing requires selecting customers on the basis of sociodemographic characteristics ... logit regression can help to identify the right characteristics... demonstrates with the help of an example how this method can be used.As competition...
The Forecasting Function: Critical Yet Misunderstood
Among other things, business knowledge, and interpersonal and communication skills are important pre-requisites for a forecasting function ... it is not necessary for a forecaster to be a statistician, with proper training one can learn the discipline......
U.S. Corporate Earnings Forecast: Major Market Indexes
The December survey of 2,500 security analysts affiliated with over 200 institutional brokerage and research firms, conducted by the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S--U.S. edition), is forecasting a 17.8% increase in U.S. corporate earnings...
U.S. Economic and Industrial Outlook: Kent Model Forecasts
1996-1997: OUTPUT SOFT, EARNINGS UP, EMPLOYMENT MIXEDIn the next two years, the overall output of the economy is expected to grow at a slow-to-moderate pace. Measured by the growth rate of real GDP, output of final goods and services in the next two...
Using Consensus Forecasts in Business Planning
It is better to use consensus forecasts than individual forecasts; individual forecasts may be more accurate at times but cannot be guaranteed ... failure in the past does not necessarily mean continued failure in predicting the future ... forecasts...
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