Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Reports

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November 8

Entanglement: Russian and Chinese Perspectives on Non-Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risks
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)SUMMARYThe entanglement of non-nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons and their enabling capabilities is exacerbating the risk of inadvertent escalation. Yet so far, the debate about the severity of this...
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October 26

CONTAIN, ENFORCE, AND ENGAGE: An Integrated U.S. Strategy to Address Iran's Nuclear and Regional Challenges
ForewordThe United States ended a thirty-five-year diplomatic vacuum with Tehran with one objective in mind: to stop it from developing a nuclear weapon.The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did precisely that. It cut off Iran's pathways to...
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March 2017

Global Civic Activism in Flux
Case studies from eight countries show how civic activism across the world is evolving and reveal crosscutting themes relevant to the future of civil society support.INTRODUCTIONRichard YoungsImportant changes appear to be under way in civil society...
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January 2017

UNCOMMON ALLIANCE for the COMMON GOOD: The United States and Japan after the Cold War
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis manuscript was made possible initially by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation, and I am grateful to Program Officer Allan Song and the proposal reviewers for their valuable...
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November 2016

Can India Grow: Challenges, Opportunities, and the Way Forward
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)INTRODUCTIONFOR A LITTLE MORE THAN THREE DECADES AFTER INDIA GAINED INDEPENDENCE IN 1947, its growth narrative and growth potential were circumscribed by the logic of self-sufficiency, import substitution,...
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October 2016

Differences between Chinese and U.S. Nuclear Thinking and Their Origins
In keeping with the pace of China's reform and opening up, Chinese nuclear experts have been gradually stepping onto the international stage and engaging in comprehensive exchanges with their foreign counterparts since the 1980s. However, this process...
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China's Security Environment and the Role of Nuclear Weapons
INTRODUCTIONChina's nuclear strategy is holistic in nature and has been notably consistent, since even before China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964. This comprehensive investigation of the leadership's thinking about nuclear strategy since the...
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China's No First Use of Nuclear Weapons
On October 16, 1964, China successfully conducted its first test of a nuclear weapon by exploding an atomic bomb. On the same day, the Chinese government issued a statement, which solemnly declared that it "will never at any time or under any circumstances...
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The Development of Nuclear Weapons in China
INTRODUCTIONChina launched its nuclear-weapon program very rapidly, after giving it the green light in January 1955. Since then, for the past several decades, apart from nearly ten years of slow progress due to the Cultural Revolution, the entire program...
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China's Views on the Road Map to Nuclear Disarmament
INTRODUCTIONThe enormously destructive effects of nuclear weapons pose a huge potential threat to humans, and consequently these weapons have raised serious concerns since they were first developed. The nuclear arms race between the United States and...
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Reflections on Strategic Stability
In recent years, official Obama administration documents have contained frequent references to the United States' strategic stability vis-à-vis China, particularly in terms of nuclear strategy and security In China, too, there have been more discussions...
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The Relationship between Nuclear Weapons and Conventional Military Conflicts
China has long pursued a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, and it has unique views on nuclear weapons and nuclear war. This unusual approach also holds true for China's views on the relationship between nuclear weapons and conventional conflict,...
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China's Understanding of the Threat of Nuclear Proliferation
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)INTRODUCTIONNuclear proliferation has been a major issue in the field of international security since the end of the Cold War. It is especially concerning in hotspots such as Northeast Asia, South Asia,...
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Nuclear Nonproliferation: China's Thinking and Practices
China's nuclear nonproliferation policy has undergone a slow but significant evolution during the past six decades. In 1963, at the beginning of the nuclear age, the People's Daily stated in an editorial that "it is necessary for socialist countries...
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How China Practices and Thinks about Nuclear Transparency
INTRODUCTIONMilitary transparency is an integral part of a country's national security policy, as well as an important means of establishing confidence and mutual trust between states. In recent years, as China's economic strength has grown, its national...
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Nuclear Weapons in U.S.-China Relations
In the early afternoon of October 16, 1964, ten hours after the People's Republic of China (PRC) conducted its first successful test of an atomic bomb, then U.S. president Lyndon Johnson walked into the Fish Room (now called the Roosevelt Room) of the...
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Changes in and the Evolution of China's Nuclear Thinking
Thanks to decades of development, China's nuclear policy and its underlying philosophy have become a complete system, with its own characteristics.1 During this process, China's nuclear thinking has been influenced by traditional culture, social values,...
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Summary
Chinese and U.S. nuclear experts communicate regularly, but these exchanges often remain difficult and inefficient. Critical differences between Chinese and U.S. thinking about nuclear weapons and deterrence result not merely from differing security...
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October 2016

CREATING A STABLE ASIA: An Agenda for a U.S.-China Balance of Power
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSA LENGTHY AND DETAILED REPORT IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE PRODUCT OF MANY MINDS, and this one is no exception. Although the argument contained herein is essentially my own, some of the supporting qualitative analysis, and all of the quantitative...
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September 2016

U.S. Leadership and the Challenge of State Fragility
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAt the very moment when challenges to the post-World War II U.S.-led international order are growing in number and complexity, Americans are asking hard questions about the type of global leadership role they want their country to play....
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June 2016

A Smart Tax: Pricing Oil for a Safe Climate
Because of the growing chemical and geological diversity of the new oils, the lack of alternative liquid fuels for transportation, and the size and global scope of oil production and trade, a tax is most needed in the oil sector.Published June 15, 2016ResourcesPrint...
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June 2016

Summary
SUMMARYTHE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER appears increasingly tense, primarily because many states feel that the structure and distribution of benefits is unjust. Among the states that will determine how the nuclear order will adapt, Argentina, Brazil, China,...
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Introduction
TENSIONS IN THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER ARE RISING. The sources of tension are many, including profound disagreement among states about disarmament and nonproliferation priorities, regional insecurity that both contributes to proliferation concerns and...
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Argentina in a Changing Nuclear Order: An Appraisal
FOR MUCH OF ITS MODERN HISTORY, Argentina has alternatively punched under and over its weight and has struggled to attain a balance between domestic and international responsibilities, on the one hand, and between its Western and Latin American identities,...
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National Development and Argentina's Nuclear Policy
DATING BACK TO THE BIRTH of the nuclear nonproliferation regime in 1968, the debate surrounding the rights and responsibilities of nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states has remained constant. Today, this unresolved debate is again at the...
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Continuity in Brazil's Nuclear Policy
BRAZILIAN DIPLOMATS have long argued that the best way to maintain peace and world security is through nuclear disarmament. Indeed, Article 21 of the Brazilian constitution states that the country will only engage in nuclear activities for peaceful purposes.1Brazil...
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Brazil's Nuclear Policy: The Case for Incrementalism
BRAZIL'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM is currently in retraction and decline following a period marked by a great deal of expansion. Throughout the 2000s, government funds flowed into expanding indigenous uranium-enrichment capabilities, building a third nuclear...
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A Rising China in the Global Nuclear Order
CHINA WAS LONG AN OUTSIDER in the global nuclear order despite its nuclear-weapon capability. It viewed the global nonproliferation regime as only serving the interests of the world's dominant powers, which established the prevailing order based on unjust...
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India's Impact on the Evolving Nuclear Order
THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER is under great duress. Despite its best efforts, the nonproliferation regime's failure to address the stockpiles of the nuclear-weapon states, as well as its inability to create a credible barrier to states aspiring to have nuclear...
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India and the Nuclear Order: Concerns and Opportunities
INDIA'S PERSPECTIVE on the evolving nuclear order is shaped by the manner in which the contemporary nuclear reality impinges on its national security and its interactions with other countries. The most pressing challenges to the existing global nuclear...
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Pakistan and the Global Nuclear Order
HOW PAKISTAN PERCEIVES its own position in the global nuclear landscape is tied to both regional security dynamics in South Asia and a changing global nuclear order. Among the most important of the regional security dynamics are Pakistan's military balance...
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Regional Drivers of Pakistan's Nuclear Outlook
PAKISTAN'S VIEW of the global nuclear order is mainly shaped by a regional outlook-centering on its tense relationship with India-rather than one that is international in nature. As a result, any event in the nuclear world that could have consequences...
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March 2016

TROUBLES, THEY COME IN BATTALIONS: The Manifold Travails of the Indian Air Force
When sorrows come, they come not single spies But in battalions.-Hamlet Act IV, Scene 5, William ShakespeareINTRODUCTIOTHE INDIAN AIR FORCE (IAF) IS IN CRISIS -and it has been some time coming. It is a crisis caused not by poor airmanship, organizational...
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January 2016

GOVERNING CYBERSPACE: A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership
INTRODUCTIONKing Philip VI of France was an unlucky man. In one of the key battles of the Hundred Years' War in 1346, he led a French army hoping to rout a smaller contingent of English forces. Entering the theater of war, he did not know that the Battle...
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September 2015

WAGGING THE PLUTONIUM DOG: Japanese Domestic Politics and Its International Security Implications
INTRODUCTIONSince the mid-1970s, the United States has made ever more strenuous efforts to minimize stockpiles of nuclear material around the world. These efforts are partially motivated by, and usually explained in terms of, preventing nuclear terrorism...
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September 2015

PERCEPTION and MISPERCEPTION IN AMERICAN AND CHINESE VIEWS OF THE OTHER
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)Alaister Iain Johnston and Mingming Shen, editorsAlastair Iain Johnston is the Laine Professor of China in World Affairs at Harvard University. He has written on strategic culture, socialization theory,...
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August 2015

The Strategic Rationale for Deeper U.S.-Indian Economic Ties: American and Indian Perspectives
SUMMARYTHE U.S.-INDIAN RELATIONSHIP was often distant during the Cold War, but the partnership is now critical for both countries' strategic aims. India is important to the U.S. effort to maintain its international primacy, while the United States is...
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April 2015

CONFLICT and COOPERATION in the ASIA-PACIFIC REGION a Strategic Net Assesstment
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSMany individuals played an important role in the production of this wide-ranging examination of the long-term security environment in the Asia-Pacific region. First and foremost, the authors would like to thank the two formal reviewers...
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March 2015

Know You Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate Index
ACRONYMSAGO - Atmospheric Gas OilANS - Alaska North SlopeAPI - measure (in degrees) of an oil's gravity or weightAR - Atmospheric Residuebbl - BarrelC-B - Coke BurnedCNR - Catalytic Naphtha ReformerCO2 - Carbon DioxideCO2 eq. - Carbon Dioxide Equivalent...
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March 2015

Murky Waters: Naval Nuclear Dynamics in the Indian Ocean
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSI WOULD LIKE to express my gratitude to the Carnegie Endowment's Nuclear Policy Program and to George Perkovich and Toby Dalton, in particular, for their warmth and guidance during my year as a Stanton Nuclear Fellow. While conducting...
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March 2015

IMPROVING DEVELOPMENT AID DESIGN AND E VALUATION: Plan for Sailboats, Not Trains
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis report benefited from a host of early readers based at international organizations and foundations, as well as specialists in complexity theory including Henk-Jan Brinkman, Wade Channel, Larry Kramer, Nick Menzies, Gary Milante, Scott...
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March 2014

Brazil's Nuclear Kaleidoscope an Evolving Identity
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSWriting about Brazil's nuclear policy would not have been possible without the Brazilians-academics, policy and technical experts, industry representatives, journalists, and former and current government officials-who generously granted...
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February 2014

Closing Space: Democracy and Human Rights Support under Fire
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSTHE AUTHORS ARE GRATEFUL TO Clarisa Bencomo, Diane de Gramont, Noha El-Mikaw y, Larry Garber, Tom Garrett, Sally Kux, Sarah Mendelson, David Osborne, Douglas Rutzen, Oren Samet-Marram, Ken Wollack, and Richard Youngs for invaluable comments...
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January 2014

Balancing without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China
ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe author is deeply grateful to Nicholas Eberstadt, Ellen Frost, George Perkovich, David Shambaugh, Arvind Subramanian, and Milan Vaishnav for their close reading and penetrating critiques. Sean Mirski provided incredibly helpful advice...
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