The International Economy

Daily provides news, commentary, and research on international economics. The source covers global financial policy, trends, and international law.

Articles from Vol. 18, No. 2, Spring

Bush's Spectacular Failure: A Former Clinton Policy Adviser Argues the Bush Team Has Failed Miserably at Global Economic Leadership
Charles Kindleberger passed away last year. One of his major contributions to our understanding of international relations was the notion that the world economic system works best if a hegemon exists who is willing and able to take the initiative to...
Chasing Yield: How the Emerging Market Debt Trading Community Is Playing a Dangerous Game
A highly successful emerging market bond trader once told me that he owed his success to his mentor's maxim: whenever you trade Latin American bonds, you should keep at the front of your mind the fact that over the past one hundred years no major Latin...
Cloak-and-Dagger, Tooth-and-Nail at the Bundesbank
In defending the Bundesbank's independence and in fighting inflation, Vice-President Jurgen Stark, 55, is at his best. On April 7, the former deputy finance minister of the Kohl government took over from Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke, 61, on a...
Exiting EMU: Not Surprisingly, the Maastricht Treaty Contains No Exit Procedures, but Bailing out Would Not Be That Difficult
The issues of how a country could withdraw from EMU or how EMU might be totally dissolved are crucial in any serious analysis of the euro's future and its risks as an international investment currency. Unsurprisingly, no insights can be gained from...
Grading Bush's Economic Team: The Bad News: They've Got Few New Ideas and Fear Too Much Being Slapped Down (the "Lindsey Factor"). the Good News: Josh Bolten Is Positioned to Emerge and Snow's Been an Improvement
On President Bush's initial economic team, Larry Lindsey, the head of the White House's National Economic Council, famously didn't get along with Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. They needed a referee on policy disputes--deputy White House Chief of...
Huh? A Surprising Success! First Came the Bursting of the Clinton Bubble, Then 9/11, Then the Accounting Scandals and All the Other Shocks to the System. Who Would Have Predicted Such a Vigorous U.S. Recovery?
I speak to business audiences. I generally open my remarks by asking the group to imagine that I had spoken to them in late 2000 and told them I could foretell the future perfectly. That is, I could see the consequences of equity price declines, a...
India Rocks! the Global Media Fixate on China's Boundless Future. India, the English-Speaking Democracy with a Huge Middle Class, Is a Far Better Bet
I have been visiting India as a portfolio manager for ten years. But on my last trip earlier this year I found that something very significant had changed from all the previous visits that I have made: now everyone wanted to talk about investing in...
In Praise of Agnostic Opportunism: Managing Risk as the Traditional Economic Paradigm Breaks Down
Recently, a former U.S. G7 official (who now advises a veritable "who's who" of the world's top financial traders) offered over coffee a rather startling observation: "You know, in the years since leaving government, my biggest surprise is that the...
In Praise of Financial Plumbers: Want a Formula for Achieving Developing Economy Success? Begin with Sound, Independent Supervisors
During the past thirty years, the developing nations around the globe have been buffeted by a series of economic and financial crises. Inevitably, this has resulted in substantially increased unemployment, stagnant growth, lowered living standards,...
Is the Japanese Recovery for Real?
After all, for more than a decade, Japan's economy has experienced a series of false starts on the road to recovery. Is the current economic upswing for once the real thing? If so, to what extent is Japan's expansion too dependent on exports to China?...
Kerry's Short List: Truth Is, the Senator Hasn't Relied Much on Economic Advisers, but the New Team Emerging Is Heavily Clintonesque
Ask Senator John Kerry's long-time aides to name people he has relied on for economic advice and you're likely to get a blank stare. Push further, and they may mention a conversation he once had with the late MIT economist Rudi Dornbusch. Or an article...
Stuffed Shirts vs. 'Skins: An Econometric Critic Tells How to Predict the Presidential Race
For nearly two hundred years, journalists and other pundits have sought a rule of thumb (or two) that might accurately predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Since 2000, this search must be informed by two important events: First, the...
The Kohler Episode: The Inside Story on the Surprise Resignation of the IMF's Top Man. A Lesson on the Dangers of Collateral Damage
The sudden resignation of Horst Kohler from the top post of the International Monetary Fund a year before serving out his first term raises some nasty questions that have been almost totally ignored so far in the German media. Do the Germans--in this...
The New U.S.-Asian Dollar Bloc: And Why Europe Could End Up the Loser
It does not take deep analysis to see that February's G7 meeting was more than a little contentious and that economic relations between the United States and Europe are strained. The G7's official communique, though blandly written as always, nonetheless...
This Time It's Different: Japan Is Poised for Growth Because for Once Its Financial System Is Healthier
This time it's different. Japanese policymaking has been repugnant to the eyes of many economists for much of the past two decades. Unfortunately, that tends to color our judgement and lead to the conclusion that Japan's economy can never properly...