National Institute Economic Review

Quarterly publication publishes research, commentary and forecasts on economic and social issues, includingeconomic modeling and analysis, productivity and competitiveness and education and training.

Articles from No. 193, July

Adjustment and Trade in the Euro Area
Economic growth in the Euro Area remains rather weak, slowing from 1.7 per cent in 2004 to a forecast rate of 1.5 per cent in 2005 before rising to 2.0 per cent in 2006. We see much of the weakness driven by poor supply side performance, with our estimate...
Assessing the Performance of Local Government
We consider the measurement of performance in the public sector in general, focussing on local government and the provision of library services by English local authorities in particular. We will consider two methodologies that assess the performance...
Commentary: Pensions and Pensions Policy
The Pensions Commission is to make its recommendations on pension policy reform later this year, in the light of comments on the challenges identified in its first Report. Widespread agreement on the need for such reform is partly a consequence of...
Forecast Comparisons
This paper compares the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasts for output, inflation and key public sector finance variables against the corresponding forecasts from HM Treasury (HMT), the Bank of England (Bank) and the...
Global Realignment of Exchange Rates: East Asia's Dilemma
Over the past year East Asia has featured prominently in the international debate over the widening global economic imbalances. In particular, China has attracted much attention for the nature of its currency regime and its large trade surplus. Until...
House Prices and Growth in North America
The two largest economies in North America began 2005 at a healthy pace: in the first quarter of this year the US economy expanded by 3.7 per cent on an annual basis, while Canada's GDP grew by 3 1/4 per cent. US growth continued to decelerate, with...
How Forecasts Evolve-The Growth Forecasts of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England
We investigate how central bank forecasts of GDP growth evolve through time, and how they are adapted in the light of official estimates of actual GDP growth. Using data for 1988-2005, we find that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has typically...
Prospects for the UK Economy
The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, Rio Tinto...
The Impact of Subdued Import Demand from China on Asia
Despite robust headline economic growth in China and a strong rebound in Japanese domestic demand, export growth decelerated across most of the East Asia region in the first half of 2005. Global demand, especially in the IT related industries, has...
The National Institute Density Forecasts of Inflation
This paper has three aims. First, we summarise and thereby make readily available the historical time-series of quarterly density forecasts of year ahead RPIX (RPI excluding mortgage payments) inflation made by the National Institute for the period...
The Oil Price and World Balances
World Growth World growth accelerated to its fastest pace in 28 years in 2004, reaching 5.1 per cent. Global growth well above trend reflected strong domestic demand in the US, France, the UK, Canada and Spain, as well as oil exporting nations such...
The Return to a University Education in Great Britain
In this paper, we estimate the rate of return to first degrees, Masters degrees and PhDs in Britain using data from the Labour Force Survey. We estimate returns to broad subject groups and more narrowly defined disciplines, distinguishing returns by...
The Superior Educational Attainments of Pupils in Religious Foundation Schools in England
Pupils of religious foundation schools in England show superior educational performance over general (Local Education Authority) schools, the advantage having been estimated in previous studies at learning about a tenth faster for the average pupil...
The UK Economy
* GDP is expected to grow by 2 per cent this year and around 2 1/2 per cent per annum for several years after that. * Falling world interest rates mean that UK interest rates can fall without inflation rising far above its target. Our forecast assumes...
The World Economy
* Global GDP growth will slow from 5.1 per cent in 2004 to 4.2 per cent in 2005; world trade growth will slow from 9.1 per cent to 6.3 per cent. * The oil price is expected to remain above $50 a barrel, although in real terms it is well below the...